Will the DXY reversal lower continue?
Tony Sycamore August 6, 2019 5:28 AM
After last week’s FOMC meeting, the market was left disappointed. The Fed, despite delivering its first rate cut in 11 years and ending quantitative tightening (QT) had failed to confirm the dovish path of future guidance the market had priced. In our article, “FOMC - another point of view” https://www.cityindex.com.au/market-analysis/fomc-another-point-of-view/ we argued, “With an eye on the better data in recent weeks the Fed has saved policy bullets for when they might truly be needed.”
After last week’s FOMC meeting, the market was left disappointed. The Fed, despite delivering its first rate cut in 11 years and ending quantitative tightening (QT) had failed to confirm the dovish path of future guidance the market had priced.
In our article, “FOMC - another point of view” https://www.cityindex.com.au/market-analysis/fomc-another-point-of-view/ we argued, “With an eye on the better data in recent weeks the Fed has saved policy bullets for when they might truly be needed.”
Frustrated by an abrupt end to trade talks in Shanghai last week, President Trump announced last Friday he would impose a 10% tariff on a further U.S. $300bn in Chinese imports, effective September 1 with scope for the rate to be increased "well beyond" 25%.
U.S investment bank Morgan Stanley wrote in a research note to clients yesterday if the “US lifts tariffs on all imports from China to 25% for 4-6 months and China takes countermeasures, we believe we will enter recession in 3 quarters.”
An ominous warning as the game of global one-upmanship continued this morning. The U.S. Treasury Department unhappy with the recent fall in the Chinese currency designated China, a currency manipulator. The accompanying press release stated that “Secretary Mnuchin will engage with the International Monetary Fund to eliminate the unfair competitive advantage created by China’s latest actions.”
The escalation in the trade war in recent days, strongly suggests some of those saved FOMC rate cut policy bullets are likely to be spent very soon. A September rate cut is a certainty, and a third rate cut in October is now probable.
What does this mean for the U.S. dollar?
In the article above, we warned of a possible reversal lower in the U.S. dollar index the DXY, following the FOMC meeting.
Subsequent price action confirmed this suspicion and our view remains that the DXY index should continue lower towards the support provided by the 200-day moving average at 97.00/90. A break and close below 97.00/90 would then allow the down move to continue towards trend channel support at 96.00. In the interim, sellers should cap rallies backwards the 97.80 resistance zone, and this is where I will be looking to resell the DXY.
Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 6th of August 2019. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation
TECH-FX TRADING PTY LTD (ACN 617 797 645) is an Authorised Representative (001255203) of JB Alpha Ltd (ABN 76 131 376 415) which holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL no. 327075)
Trading foreign exchange, futures and CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange, futures or CFDs you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss in excess of your deposited funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange, futures and CFD trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. It is important to note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Any advice provided is general advice only. It is important to note that:
- The advice has been prepared without taking into account the client’s objectives, financial situation or needs.
- The client should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice, in light of their own objectives, financial situation or needs, before following the advice.
- If the advice relates to the acquisition or possible acquisition of a particular financial product, the client should obtain a copy of, and consider, the PDS for that product before making any decision.
StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.
No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.