USD/JPY looks through US protests to focus on Blue Sweep

In an article on Monday, the challenges facing traders this week were outlined including the Electoral College vote where supporters of outgoing President Donald Trump were expected to mount a last-ditch challenge to overturn the November US Presidential election result.

FOREX 3

In a continuation of the trend that was 2020, the previously unthinkable has unfolded as supporters of outgoing US President Donald Trump broke into the US Capitol Building, while Congress was in session, forcing evacuations and resulting in one fatality.  

Images of the ultimate symbol of American democracy under siege have prompted world leaders to call for calm and a “peaceful and orderly transfer of power”. The hope now is that the final chapter of a contentious US election will soon be closed by Joe Biden's formal confirmation.   

For traders, this would mean they can go about the business of repricing asset classes following the surprise win by the Democrats in the Georgia Senate runoff, which gives the Democrats control of both chambers of Congress.

The delayed Democratic “Blue Sweep” increases prospects of further fiscal stimulus and limited tax increases, and prompted US 10 year yields to close 8bps higher overnight - back above 1% for the first time since mid-March 2020.

The rally in US yields has provided some relief to USD/JPY that has spent the last nine months trading within a downtrend from the 111.72 March 2020 high. Despite the dominant downtrend the value in trading USD/JPY from the short side at current levels, ahead of very strong weekly support 102.00/101.00 area appears limited.

Rather after the formation of a potential double low this week at 102.59 and supported by the rally in U.S yields, there appears to be scope for USD/JPY to rally towards recent highs 103.70/90 area in line with the chart below.

USD/JPY looks through US protests to focus on Blue Sweep

If US 10 year yields were to continue higher again into the 1.10/1.15% region, it would then open the way for USD/JPY to push towards the band of resistance 104.30/82, coming from trend channel resistance (104.30) and the 200-day moving average (104.82).

USD/JPY looks through US protests to focus on Blue Sweep

Source Tradingview. The figures stated areas of the 30th of December 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.  This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

Build your confidence risk free
Join our live webinars for the latest analysis and trading ideas. Register now

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.