US-Mexico Immigration Agreement Boosts Sentiment At The Open | MXN, SPX

Sentiment was given a boost at the open with Trump’s announcement that US and Mexico have reached an agreement on immigration, providing another tailwind for equity markets.

Over the weekend headlines poured in that US and Mexico had reached a deal with curb migration, allowing Mexico to avoid the 5% tariffs threatened by Trump. Still, the tariffs have been “indefinitely suspended” and sceptics were quick to point out the deal merely repackaged concessions already made by Mexico in previous negotiations.

Although details remain unclear, Trump claims “strong measures” will be taken by Mexico to stop migration at the southern border. And late on Sunday Trump has added that Mexico will make large agricultural purchases from the US.

Markets have taken it as a constructive step forward which has provided a sense of risk-on at the start of the Asian session. S&P Futures gapped up to 1-month high, equities across Asia were in the black, USD/JPY spent a brief period above last week’s high, USD is currently the strongest major whilst CHF and JPY are currently the weakest.

Of course, the biggest beneficiary so far today has been the Mexican peso which recouped a large chunk of losses it sustained when Trump announced the surprise tariffs. Currently trading -1.7% on the session after gapping lower at the open, USD/MXN is on track for its most bearish day since July 2018. After failing to hold above the March high, USD/MXN is back within range with potential to revisit $19 in light of recent developments and soft wage growth within Friday’s NFP data.

Index futures popped higher at the open, although the S&P500 futures markets appears set to close its gap. Still, equity prices are now being supported by a lift in trade sentiment following the US-Mexico announcement, and rising expectations of a Fed cut following Friday’s NFP data set.

Resistance has been found around 2,900 yet we expect the index to remain supported as bulls seek to buy the dips. The S&P has posted a solid 6% rally from tis low and price action has broken easily back above the 200 and 50-day eMA’s. Furthermore, the 20-day eMA is curling higher and could cross back above the 50, and the two averages currently provide a dynamic support zone around 2,840.

Build your confidence risk free
Join our live webinars for the latest analysis and trading ideas. Register now

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.