US data gives the dollar a dent

The FX markets have traded with a delayed reaction to the US data releases yesterday, which came in below consensus. The dollar consolidated within 30 point ranges overnight but as European trading resumes, the dollar has initially sold off. The market remains concerned that the recent weakness in the US data will also be reflected in the US jobs report that is to be released tomorrow.

The ADP report came in below consensus at 189k for March which has seen some economists question the consensus forecasts for NFP’s at 250k. The ISM data didn’t point to any improvement in the US manufacturing sector as exports fell, whilst the employment component failed to show signs of growth – although the severe weather disrupting the West coast ports is likely to be a large contributor to this benign reading.

The AUD stood out as the biggest loser in currency space in Asia after Australia printed its biggest trade deficit in 5 months as exports in coal were again seen falling. The continued fall in iron ore prices and the fact that inflation in Australia has bucked the global slowdown in March has increased speculation that the RBA will cut rates on April the 7th.

We have data releases from the US this afternoon in the form of the trade balance and factory orders, but this will be a mere distraction ahead of the US jobs tomorrow.

EUR/USD
Supports 1.0715-1.0615-1.0580 | Resistance 1.0850-1.0950-1.1050

USD/JPY
Supports 119.40-118.20-116.70 | Resistance 120.60-121.55-122.45

GBP/USD
Supports 1.4810-1.4740-1.4635 | Resistance 1.4990-1.5030-1.5170