UK to dominate FX focus today

The ZEW survey results added to the Euro’s, woes coming in below an already very low consensus with details suggesting the Russian sanctions could possibly push the German growth picture to zero later this week.

The overnight EONIA levels are now trading at points that haven’t been seen since the introduction of the single currency.

The technical FX space is now seeing the 1.3330 level as a double bottom as some speculate that with geopolitical tensions seemingly easing, the euro could be in for some position adjusting.

The Chinese growth momentum continues to slow following the release of retail sales and industrial production data, whilst lending data has heightened expectations of further policy easing from the PBoC in order for them to reach the 7.5% growth target. New loans came in at 385 billion Yuan versus the 780 billion expected.

The FX focus will move to the UK this morning, with the release of employment data, which has the market looking for a further dip in the unemployment rate to 6.4%. However, it will be the quarterly inflation report released an hour later that will gather the main focus as the market looks for signs from Mark Carney that – despite GDP and unemployment being stronger since the May report – there’s still evidence of slack within the economy as wage growth has disappointed.

The US session will guide us to the latest consumer attitude with the release of retail sales data.

EUR/USD

Supports 1.3335-1.3320-1.3295 | Resistance 1.3380-1.3435-1.3480

USD/JPY

Supports 102.00-101.75-101.50 | Resistance 102.50-102.85-103.10

GBP/USD

Supports 1.6740-1.6690-1.6650 | Resistance 1.6850-1.6890-1.6950

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Average spread : 7.469 pips*
Average daily range : 73.88 pips*

*average spread and daily range from 21 July to 25 July 2014.