UK jobs data a potential banana skin for the pound

The risk trade in FX has held onto its gains but has failed to break higher following US Presidents Obama’s address to the US nation on the Syrian crisis. USD/JPY traded in a volatile manor over the speech, initially selling off as the President said that the US knew Syrian President Assad was responsible for the recent gas attacks and that of course military action was not going to be a popular option. The pair then reversed as Obama went on to ask Congress to postpone the vote on a military strike as he negotiates with the UN and Russia on the surrender of chemical weapons proposal by Syria threatening that a failure to deliver will be met with military action.

The main event today will be the release of UK employment data. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 7.8% today with the figure being in greater focus of late following the guidance provided by BOE Governor Mark Carney that interest rates will be kept low at least until the jobless rate falls to 7%. A quicker decline in the unemployment rate toward the 7% threshold could fuel market speculation that the BoE’s three-year horizon could be met sooner and the BoE will therefore be forced to raise interest rates faster than its forward guidance has suggested.

There is second tier data from across the pond this afternoon with mortgage applications and wholesale inventories scheduled for release. In the early Thursday Asian session AUD and NZD will come into focus with the release of the Australian labour force report for August along with RBNZ monetary policy statement.

EUR/USD

Supports 1.3225-1.3175-1.3125 | Resistance 1.3290-1.3315-1.3370

USD/JPY

Supports 100.00-99.25-98.50 | Resistance 100.70-100.90-101.55

GBP/USD

Supports 1.5670-1.5640-1.5600  | Resistance 1.5755-1.5785-1.5885