UK data in focus ahead of FOMC minutes

<p>The FX markets are consolidating ahead of this week’s main event – the release of the FOMC minutes tomorrow evening. Chinese data overnight has led […]</p>

The FX markets are consolidating ahead of this week’s main event – the release of the FOMC minutes tomorrow evening. Chinese data overnight has led to a slight risk on sentiment, adding to the dollar negative bias seen in the US session on Monday. I was completely wrong yesterday as the US market returned from the Independence Day holidays and sold the dollar, squeezing the longs established from Friday’s robust US labour report and Thursday’s forward guidance policy announcements from the BoE and ECB.

I still like the dollar as you can’t argue with the data but I sense that with no US releases today further losses can’t be ruled out ahead of the FOMC minutes as it certainly feels like the market is extremely long the dollar. I will be sticking with my levels and be patient, looking for 1.2990 and 1.5025 or breaks of 1.2800 and 1.4850 in euro and cable respectively.

As mentioned the Chinese CPI came in at 2.7% YoY versus the 2.4% expected, with the PPI slightly worst at -2.7% versus the consensus forecast of -2.6%.

Today’s data focus comes from the UK at 9.30am with the release trade balance and latest industrial production reading.

 


EUR/USD

Supports 1.2840-1.2750-1.2660 | Resistance 1.2925-1.2985-1.3040


USD/JPY

Supports 100.80-100.30-99.30 | Resistance 101.30-101.80-102.30


GBP/USD

Supports 1.4920-1.4855-1.4830  | Resistance 1.5000-1.5025-1.5100

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