Two trades to watch: FTSE, EUR/USD

FTSE in focus as EU considers banning British tourists due to Delta variant. EUR/USD looks to ECB & Fed speakers in light economic calendar.

Charts (1)

FTSE in focus as EU considers banning UK tourists 

The FTSE along with other EU indices are kicking off the week in a cautious and subdued manner, owing to few macro drivers across the weekend. 

Covid cases keep rising in the UK which could cause some jitters, 14,500 new daily cases were recorded on Sunday. 

Travel stocks are likely to be in focus after Merkel continues to press for UK tourists to be banned from the EU, with or without a double vaccine, owing to the high numbers of delta variant. 

Where next for the FTSE? 

The FTSE has rebounded from its June 21 low of 6940, reaching a high of 7155 overnight. The price has just eased off that level. In doing so it is testing the week old ascending trendline. The FTSE remains above its 50 & 100 sma on the 4-hourchart, which ae neutral. 

The MACD shows a receding bullish bias which could support the sellers. However, any move lower would need to break meaningfully below the ascending trendline support at 7145. 

A move below this level could see the 50 100 sma tested at 7100 ahead of low June 22 at 7060. 

On the upside, a move above 7155 could see buyers look to test 7170 June 18 high ahead of 7220 the June high. 


EUR/USD mildly under pressure, ECB & Fed speakers under the spotlight

The EUR/USD is edging lower, heading towards 1.19, snapping a two-day winning run.  

The US Dollar is finding support amid fresh concerns over rising covid cases in Asia, Australia and the UK.  

The US Dollar is also finding support following Friday’s PCE inflation gauge which jumped to a three year high in May. The Fed continues to give slightly mixed signals over how transitory the spike in inflation could be. 

The quiet economic calendar will leave central bank speakers in focus. 

The ECB’S Panetta and de Guindos in addition to the Fed’s Williams and Harker are due to speak. 

Where next for EUR/USD? 

EUR/USD sold of steeply last week, hitting a low of 1.1850 before attempting a rebound. The price recovered 125 pips, finding resistance at 1.1975 on June 25, before slipping lower again.  

The price has broken below its week-old ascending trend line. Any upside is also being capped by the 50 sma on the 4-hour chart. 

The MACD appears to be forming a bearish crossover which favours the sellers. 

A move lower would need to break below 1.1920 today’s low to attack 1.19 round number and 1.1890 low June 17. A break below this level could bring the June low of 1.1850 back into focus. 

Any recovery would need to retake the 50 sma at 1.1940 ahead of 1.1975 last week’s high. A move beyond here could see the buyers gain traction and target 1.20 the key psychological level.

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