Two trades to watch: EUR/USD, S&P500

EUR/USD tests support ahead of US jobs report whilst the S&P500 refreshes all time highs.

Charts (2)

EUR/USD testing support ahead of NFP

EUR/USD saw heavy selling on Thursday sliding through the key support of $1.20 to multi-month lows.

Slow vaccine rollout in Europe drags on the Euro. 

German factory orders MoM Dec -1.9% vs 2.7% Nov & -1% exp. 

US dollar boosted by rising treasury yields as progress with US vaccine rollout and hopes of huge fiscal spending in 2021 fuel economic recovery optimism.

US jobless claims beat forecasts + 50K

US non-farm payroll in focus 50k jobs expected to be added

My colleague Matthew Weller looks at what to expect from the NFP in more detail here.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD saw heavy selling on Thursday sliding through the key support of $1.20 to multi-month lows. 

A break-through the $1.2055 horizontal support and then through 1.20 the key psychological level has seen the bears take control near term. The RSI is also supportive of further selling. Whilst the head and shoulders formation is usually a bearish reversal signal.

The pair is currently testing support of 100 dma at 1.1960, a break-through here could see 1.1900 round number come into play ahead of 1.1840.

Should the 100 dma hold an attempted recovery could meet resistance at 1.20. A push higher could be considered an opportunity to short with gains capped by 1.2050. A move beyond 1.2150 the 50 dma is needed for a resumption of the uptrend.

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S&P refreshes all time high ahead of NFP

S&P futures hold mild gains +0.15% at the time of writing at 3880 around all time high
Risk on trade supporting stocks as US policymakers fast tracked Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion covid relief package & amid encouraging vaccine progress.

S&P 500 technical analysis

The S&P 500 trades above its 20, 50 & 100 sma on the daily chart, suggesting an established bullish trend. The RSI is also above 50 but below 70 indicating that there could me more upside to be had. 

The all time high of 3885 needs to be breached for the bulls to look towards 3850 and the key psychological level of 4000.

Immediate horizontal support can be seen at 3830 prior to 3800 the 20 sma. The 20 sma has offered solid support across the year so far. It would take a break below horizontal support at 3650 to negate the current bullish trend.

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