Two trades to watch: EUR/GBP, Dow Jones

EUR/GBP tests key resistance ahead of ECB minutes. Dow Jones looks to fresh all time highs supported by the dovish Fed.

Charts (5)

EUR/GBP tests key resistance 

Euro rebounded firmly on news that vaccine rollout is ramping up in largest economies. 

However, Europe is heavily dependent on AstraZeneca jab where a link to blood clots has been confirmed. 

UK pressing ahead with reopening on swift vaccine rollout, with herd immunity expected next week. 

ECB minutes in focus. 

Where next for EUR/GBP? 

EUR/GBP has been on a tear over the past two days, surging over 2.5% from its 14 month low struck at the start of the week.  

The pair has broken out of the descending channel dating back to the start of the year. 

However, it appears to be struggling to cross the 50 EMA. Failure to take this level would mean that this recent advance is more of a temporary correction rather than a changing in trend. 

Should the 50 sma at 0.8650 prevent further gains the price could target the yearly low of 0.8472, prior to 0.8400 round number. 

A meaningful move above the 50 EMA, could see the the buyers take on 0.87 round number ahead of 0.8730 high February 25. 

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Dow Jones supported by dovish Fed 

The mood in the market remains upbeat after the FOMC minutes pointed to ongoing support from the Fed, despite expectations for a quick recovery in the US. This was music to the ears of the bulls. 

US jobless claims and a speech by Fed Chair Powell are in focus. 

Where next for the Dow Jones? 

The Dow Jones has traded within an ascending channel since November. It trades above its upward sloping 50 & 100 EMA in an established bullish trend. The RSI is supportive of further gains whilst it is below the overbought level of 70. 

The price is testing resistance on the upper band of the ascending channel, a break above which could open the door to 34000.  

Failure to meaningfully move above this the upper band at 33500 could see the price slip lower providing opportunities to buy the dip. Support can be seen at around 33000 a level which has offered both support and resistance over the past 3 weeks. Stronger support can be seen at around 32000 the 50 EMA and low March 24. 

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