Markets update: Trade talks and Brexit talk

A third consecutive day of global stock market gains is on track

Markets update: trade talks and Brexit talk

  • A third consecutive day of global stock market gains is on track after Washington signals that talks with Beijing are progressing, with a “little” slide of the 1st March deadline possible
  • European shares hold firm as sectors sensitive to last year’s tariff hikes react well. Mining and metal and technology indices are up 1% to 1.5%
  • Iberian shares lag; IBEX-35 falls 0.2%; PSI-20 off 0.9%. Region’s bond yields rise on higher chances of a snap Spanish election
  • U.S. futures hold positive territory
  • European indices → DAX: +0.2%; FTSE MIB: +0.6%; STOXX: +0.4%; FTSE: +0.5%;
  • U.S. index futures  → Dow: +0.3%; S&P: +0.3%; Nasdaq: +0.5%

Stock highlights

  • European earnings take a turn for the better as Akzo Nobel, the Dutch chemical group beats forecasts, lifting its shares 3.4% and the chemical sector by 1%
  • Smurfit Kappa has a similar impact on rival paper and packaging firms as the Irish group’s stock adds 4% on above-forecast earnings
  • Investors are more optimistic about Europe’s corporate outlook as a weekly consensus forecast for Q4 rises for the first time since mid-November.
  • The trend of less than solid banking earnings continues though. Loan losses drag ABN Amro’s Q4 results lower

FX

  • Sterling stand outs, despite increasingly byzantine Brexit prospects and inflation at a two-year low. Fresh, albeit flimsy, Brexit delay talk sparked a 70-pip cable surge earlier and a 40-odd pip EUR/GBP run though a fade is now on
  • NZD/JPY’s RBNZ-fuelled advance ran into offers near ¥76 echoing a ¥75.91 top that kicked off a correction a week ago
  • The broader backdrop is a weakening dollar as its safe-haven trade-related appeal dwindle
  • Most majors move off highs into the U.S. CPI release at the bottom of the hour

Remaining data/highlights


Local Time

Country

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

Actual

Prior

Revised

02:00

China (Mainland)

Total Social Financing

Jan

3,250.00B

1,589.80B

09:30

United Kingdom

CPI MM

Jan

-0.7%

-0.8%

0.2%

09:30

United Kingdom

CPI YY

Jan

1.9%

1.8%

2.1%

09:30

United Kingdom

RPI MM

Jan

-0.8%

-0.9%

0.4%

09:30

United Kingdom

RPI YY

Jan

2.6%

2.5%

2.7%

09:30

United Kingdom

RPIX YY

Jan

2.5%

2.7%

09:30

United Kingdom

PPI Input Prices MM NSA

Jan

0.3%

-0.1%

-1.0%

-1.6%

09:30

United Kingdom

PPI Input Prices YY NSA

Jan

3.8%

2.9%

3.7%

3.2%

09:30

United Kingdom

PPI Output Prices MM NSA

Jan

0.0%

0.0%

-0.3%

09:30

United Kingdom

PPI Output Prices YY NSA

Jan

2.2%

2.1%

2.5%

2.4%

09:30

United Kingdom

PPI Core Output MM NSA

Jan

0.2%

0.4%

0.2%

0.1%

09:30

United Kingdom

PPI Core Output YY NSA

Jan

2.3%

2.4%

2.5%

2.4%

10:00

Euro Zone

Industrial Production MM

Dec

-0.4%

-0.9%

-1.7%

10:00

Euro Zone

Industrial Production YY

Dec

-3.2%

-4.2%

-3.3%

-3.0%

13:30

United States

Core CPI YY, NSA

Jan

2.1%

2.2%

2.2%

13:30

United States

CPI MM, SA

Jan

0.1%

0.0%

-0.1%

0.0%

13:30

United States

CPI YY, NSA

Jan

1.5%

1.6%

1.9%

13:30

United States

Labor Costs Prelim

Q4

1.7%

0.9%

13:30

United States

Productivity Prelim

Q4

1.7%

2.3%

2.2%

23:50

Japan

GDP QQ

Q4

0.4%

-0.6%

23:50

Japan

GDP QQ Annualised

Q4

1.4%

-2.5%

23:50

Japan

GDP QQ Pvt Consmp Prelim

Q4

0.8%

-0.2%

23:50

Japan

GDP QQ Capital Expend.

Q4

1.8%

-2.8%

23:50

Japan

GDP QQ External Demand

Q4

-0.4%

-0.1%


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