Market News & Analysis

May's Vote Fails Again

Theresa May was unable to get her deal across the line for a third time, sending the pound tanking lower through support at $1.30. The PM lost the vote by 344 to 286. 
The default option is that the UK will leave the EU on 12th April. Parliament are holding up Brexit without any firm plan in place. The House said no to a no deal Brexit, no to Theresa May’s deal and couldn’t agree on a way forward for Plan B.  

The reason the pound has fallen further through $1.2978 is because investors are now assuming that ministers will force a softer version of Brexit through. Voting will continue on Monday for a preferred option for Plan B. However, this will almost certainly require an extension from the EU, meaning all 27 member countries much agree to extending article 50.

Trade Optimism Boosts Global Stocks
Stocks in Europe traded higher, buoyed by rebounding US treasury yields and by progress in US – Sino trade talks. Optimism that the US and China were moving towards a trade agreement has boosted risk appetite. Whilst any agreement could still be some months in the making, Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow hinted that some tariffs on Chinese imports could be removed. Progress in the US – Sino trade dispute is ensuring a strong end to the quarter for equities, despite lingering concerns over the health of the global economy. 

We have seen investors pile into riskier assets across this quarter thanks to positive trade talk developments and a more accommodative Fed. Whether the bulls stay in control in the coming quarter could depend largely on further developments in US – Sino trade talks. Particularly amid a lack of solid evidence.

Oil rallies
Oil was also lining up to end its best quarter in over 10 year on a high. Oil rallied across the day, rebounding from a Trump inspired sell off in the previous session. Continued output cuts from OPEC, in addition to sanction of Iran and Venezuela have overshadowed demand concerns, enabling oil to have a stellar quarter. owing to slowing global growth. 

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