Range: 1.3526 – 1.3612
The euro has begun to regain some of its losses after the significant declines over the past week. This tentative recovery is more accurately attributed to a pause in negative financial conditions. Ireland remains the most immediate threat to the future of the shared currency. Finance minister Lenihan’s decision to snub financial support from the EU at the group’s monthly meeting late Tuesday has not improved the situation, and in some ways has increased the risk as traders speculate on what might actually happen. However as the market await the EU, ECB and IMF’s assessment of the country’s ability to stabilise its own banking sector, there is time for reflection and contemplation.
Range: 1.5890 – 1.5944
Jobless claims in the UK fell 3.7k in October, and the claimant count rate was unchanged at 4.5%. Immediately following these better than expected figures, the pound rallied against all its major counterparties, but subsequently retraced back to original levels. The BoE minutes were released, and for the second straight month, the central bank showed a three-way split. As expected, Mr Sentance again called for a rate hike, whereas Mr Posen voted to increase QE. The majority of the committee ‘is ready to adjust in either direction’. Looking forward, the split amongst committee members will likely widen in the coming months as uncertainty regarding growth prospects lingers.
The dollar recovery from 80.20 lows early in November extended on Tuesday above 83.00, and after failing to breach 83.60 on Wednesday, the pair has remained consolidating in Asia between 83.05 and 83.40. On the upside, immediate resistance levels lie at 83.40 (session high) and above here at 83.60 (Nov 17th high). On the downside, support lies at 82.85 (Nov 16/17 lows) and below here at 82.65 (50-day MA).