Surprise Vodafone upgrades keep dividend hopes live

Vodafone's surprise upgrades keep dividend hopes live

Cash and earnings surprise

Vodafone’s history of less than perfect execution is longer than its run of upside surprises, so shareholders are offering fulsome applause to unexpected profit and cash flow upgrades. These give traction to the narrative that the group could unveil a higher than forecast dividend rise for the current year and subsequent pay outs. Tuesday’s palpable share price relief is reminiscent of July, when the group drew a line under a year of value destruction. In fact, the stock’s multiple to 17/18 earnings is now well above comparable peers. That suggests market optimism may have overshot. But the group has now raised the possibility that free cash flow will come in above €5bn, vs. ‘around €5bn’. With operational momentum at play there’s a fair chance the results will beat expectations enough for the board to positively review pay-out plans. For now though, no such C-suite thought process is detectible. Dividends are tracking in line with forecasts; up 2.1% in H1.

Still paying the price in India

The group does after all remain rough around the edges following years of strategically convoluted logic and a few outright debacles, chiefly the misguided race to the bottom in India in pursuit of Jio. Whilst the merger with Idea Cellular, aimed at fixing the situation, is progressing, service revenues continue to bleed, falling another 15.8% in H1 as competition is still intense. Vodafone needs signs of consolidation among Indian operators to gather pace in order to improve the region’s economics. If not, the draw on cash flow will cap the odds of higher shareholder pay-outs. Facing stronger comparable earnings, standout regional growth could become more equivocal too. AMAP service revenues were a robust 7%, a tick lower than 7.1% in the second half of last year, but with H1 16/17, when the region grew 8.2%, looking even more like a peak. Elsewhere, laggardly Germany and UK remain far from capable of heavy lifting. UK organic sales remain negative and Germany, Vodafone’s largest European business region, posted the third consecutive fall in core growth.

Breathing space in Italy

Still, the later than anticipated launch of Iliad’s Italian mobile offer (it was expected to launch in this quarter) offers Vodafone some breathing space there. The delay coincides with Vodafone’s third straight half year of organic growth in Italy. Presumably this easier environment will be over when the new competitor launches. But with European traffic growth yet to reach a peak and Vodafone’s most demanding capex phase over, chances of a much sought after increase in shareholder pay outs are still live. Vodafone stock was up almost 16% for the year at the end of May. Tuesday’s update can underpin the upswing from September’s 5-month lows to a price return moderately above end-May levels by year end.

Tech spec

Technical traders will note how VOD has, yet again stopped short of 228p resistance, as it has at each significant attempt to break above its broad trend since June. Note 228p has appeared frequently this year as Vodafone’s Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP), much-used by institutional investors.

The limit speaks to lingering caution about the group’s ability to make good on new profit and cash flow pledges. From a technical perspective, the latest failure increases the status of the cap as a resistance. The stock is now likely to fill the virtual ‘gap’ created by Tuesday’s thin candle – though there may be a delay given that the current up move still has momentum – (see Slow Stochastic Oscillator sub-chart). The stock also remains underpinned, as it has for most of the year now, with an eye to supports at 215p, and less reliably 219p. Vodafone isn’t quite ready for that break higher yet, but the odds of it doing so in the medium term continue to improve.