Risk boosted by Spanish bailout (sorry loan)
City Index June 11, 2012 1:00 PM
<p>EUR/USD Range: 1.2540-1.2672 Support: 1.2560 Resistance: 1.2690 Spain has accepted a Euro 100 billion bailout for its distressed banking system with the Spanish Prime Minister […]</p>
Spain has accepted a Euro 100 billion bailout for its distressed banking system with the Spanish Prime Minister saying that Spain was receiving a credit line and not a bailout. The funds will be received through a Government entity (FROB) to replenish banking reserves, different from the bailouts to help Greece, Portugal and Ireland. With Euro 100 Billion being above the market expectations the Euro gapped higher on the week’s open from 1.2520 to 1.2672. I would be cautious adding to fresh longs at these levels as I expect market attention will now move to the week-ends Greek election and scrutiny on the Italian economy.
Range: 1.5475 – 1.5566
Sterling rides on the coat tails of the broader risk rally after the week-end announcement on the Spanish banking sector. There is not much in the way of UK data this week industrial production (tomorrow) and the trade balance on Friday the highlights. IMM data revealed leveraged funds remain long sterling with EUR/GBP continuing higher I see the cross as the pain trade if we test 0.8220.
With Sydney on holiday celebrating the Queen’s birthday liquidity was at a premium on the open as risk gapped higher following the Spanish bailout announcement. The lifestyle currency briefly traded above parity despite weaker Chinese data following last week’s rate cut. Chinese CPI came in at 3% (3.2% exp) and retail sales at 13.8% (14.2% exp) with the only bright spot being a stronger trade balance at $18.7 versus a consensus of $16.25 Billion.
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