Patience – it’s still all about the data

<p>The dollar is trading with a negative tone as the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reminded us of the FOMC’s dual mandate that the committee expects […]</p>

The dollar is trading with a negative tone as the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reminded us of the FOMC’s dual mandate that the committee expects inflation to rise to 2% over the medium term. She emphasised data dependency on policy, adding that changes in forward guidance would signal an adjustment in policy. This basically implied that the ‘patience’ language would need to be removed before the ‘lift off’ in interest rates can start. All in all, the testimony left the door open for an adjustment in policy at the June meeting but realistically a move in October or December looks more likely unless inflation expectations have a sudden turn-around.

The commodity currencies have led the charge in G10 FX space following a four-month high print in the HSBC China manufacturing PMI, which rose to 50.1 from a consensus forecast of 49.5. The CAD received a 100 point boost as the BOC’s Poloz changed the outlook for a further rate in cut in March by suggesting the rate cut in January. This has bought the Canadian central bank some time to respond to the lower oil prices.

US home sales will be the data focus today as we have a rehash of the Fed Chair’s speech to the financial committee as ECB president Draghi testifies to the European Parliament in Brussels.



 1.1260-1.1210-1.1100  | Resistance 1.1400-1.1450-1.1520



118.10-117.25-116.80 | Resistance 119.80-120.50-122.00



1.5320-1.5280-1.5150 | Resistance 1.5550-1.5620-1.5700

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