Oz retail sales boosts risk with European & UK PMI data the highlight on Independence Day

<p>  EUR/USD Range: 1.2580-1.2609 Support: 1.2550 Resistance: 1.2750 The ECB meeting tomorrow will take centre stage with the US celebrating Independence Day today. The market […]</p>

EUR USD

EUR/USD

Range: 1.2580-1.2609
Support: 1.2550
Resistance: 1.2750
The ECB meeting tomorrow will take centre stage with the US celebrating Independence Day today. The market seems split on whether the ECB will act tomorrow and cut rates or leave unchanged and try and force the European governments to address economic weakness via fiscal efforts rather than monetary policy. We have European services PMI data this morning which is the only possibility for a move and with the US on holiday all eyes will be on Bob Diamond squirming in front of the treasury committee on TV this afternoon.
GBP USD

GBP/USD

Range: 1.5665 – 1.5694
Support: 1.5500
Resistance: 1.5800
Not much to add as we await the main event for the pound this week with the BoE announcement at noon tomorrow. As mentioned yesterday I think £50 billion of added QE is already priced to sterling. Today at 9.28am the UK services PMI is released with the consensus forecast being 52.9. Cable was capped again above 1.5730 yesterday but the catalyst looked to be a large EUR/GBP flow driving the cross up 35 pips.

 

AUD USD

AUD/USD

Range: 1.0275-1.0322
Support: 1.0200
Resistance: 1.0350
Australian retail sales surprised to the upside overnight with a solid reading of 0.5% against the median estimate of 0.3% with upward revisions for April to 0.1% from -0.2%. The lifestyle currency managed to close above the 200-day moving average of 1.0254 and with the strong data further stops were triggered above 1.0300 but the follow through was limited to 1.0320 as the market settled back into a 30 pip range ahead of the US holiday today.

Join our live webinars for the latest analysis and trading ideas. Register now

GAIN Capital UK Limited (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.