NZDUSD treads water ahead of Thursdays Q2 GDP data release
Tony Sycamore September 14, 2021 4:00 AM
Global new covid cases are continuing to fall. China and Japan have seen a sharp fall in new cases. In NSW, the numbers are finally heading in the right direction, and in New Zealand, the seven-day rolling average has fallen from 66 at the end of August to 22.4.
Yesterday NZ PM Jacinda Arden announced Auckland would stay in lockdown for another week in line with the NZ government's strategy of pursuing zero new cases.
Encouragingly the pace of vaccination in NZ has increased. 66% of the population have now received their first dose, and 33% of the population are double jabbed. These numbers should continue to increase after the NZ government secured 500k of Pfizer doses from Denmark and 275k from Spain.
Heading into Thursday's Q2 GDP release and reflecting delta optimism, pricing for an RBNZ hike has increased from 90% priced to fully priced for a 25bp hike at its meeting on October 6th.
Although Thursdays Q2 GDP data predates the current lockdown, it will confirm the economy was on a solid footing before the lockdowns. The market is looking for a 1.3% q/q lift in Q2 GDP, followed by a sharp drop in Q3, before a reopening fuelled recovery in Q4.
The NZDUSD's ability to withstand the recent bout of risk aversion in US equity equities has been impressive, despite the NZDUSD having one of the outstanding long positions in G10 FX currently.
Nonetheless, while the NZDUSD remains below trend channel resistance and recent highs .7140/70, the risks remain for a flush lower towards the 7000c area in the near term. Aware that if the NZDUSD were to break and close above .7175, it would negate expectations of a pullback and indicate a rally towards .7300c is underway.
Source Tradingview. The figures stated areas of September 14th, 2021. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation
StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.
No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.