NZD/JPY in focus ahead of New Zealand GDP

<p>The New Zealand dollar has shown relative strength again today and the commodity currency could push further higher unless the country’s GDP comes out below […]</p>

The New Zealand dollar has shown relative strength again today and the commodity currency could push further higher unless the country’s GDP comes out below expectations this evening (or Thursday morning NZ time). The New Zealand economy is expected to have expanded by a solid 1.1% in the second quarter compared to 0.7% in the first. Judging by the NZD’s strength, the market may be positioning itself up for a positive surprise. However, this also means that there is now scope for disappointment and if the data comes out weaker than expected then there is a possibility for a sharp drop as speculators potentially rush to exit their positions.

So, there may be clear trading opportunities for either the bulls or the bears on the New Zealand dollar depending on the outcome of the data and the market’s response. Among the NZD pairs, the NZD/JPY may be an interesting one to watch around the time the data comes out. If the data or otherwise helps to lift the NZD/JPY above the bearish trend line at 75.05 area then there is a possibility for a quick 100 pip pop to the next resistance and recent high at 76.05 before the unit makes its next move. However, if the NZD/JPY breaks decisively below support at 74.30 (old resistance) then price may drop to test its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level against the most recent upswing at 73.70. The next potential support below this level is at 72.40, where the selling pressure has stalled several times in the past.

16-09-14-nzdjpy

Join our live webinars for the latest analysis and trading ideas. Register now

GAIN Capital UK Limited (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.