Non-farm payrolls the main event of the month
City Index November 7, 2014 2:19 PM
<p>FX markets had a subdued Asian session, as per usual, in the build up to the most watched data release of the month, the US […]</p>
FX markets had a subdued Asian session, as per usual, in the build up to the most watched data release of the month, the US non-farm payrolls data. Today is expected to still be a decent number for the NFP at 235k, which is less than the previous data of 248k. The reason this is highly watched is the actual release can be very different and cause lots of volatility for the USD, and lots of swings in all the major pairs.
Since May of this year, the NFP has been above 200k except in the month of September where we see a big drop below, the consensus is that it will still stay above the 200k with a range of estimates from 195 – 300.
The pound struggled yesterday to hold on to any levels yesterday, dropping around 130 points. A lot of this was due to no change from the BoE, but this was what was expected, and just the pure dominance of the USD of late, with cable now trading below 1.5850. Carney is speaking later and could bring some life back to the pound, but with the NFP in the wings, this could be short lived if data comes out of the US as expected.
The euro is also having a horrid time against the greenback and the ECB didn’t help with the dovish tone from Mario Draghi, ready to do more if needed. With little data out today to help with its fall, it’s all up to the US data releases.
Supports 1.2320 1.2260 1.2150 | Resistance 1.2430 1.2490 1.2595
Supports 114.30 113.45 112.80 | Resistance 114.90 115.70 116.40
Supports 1.5775 1.5710 1.5600 | Resistance 1.5890 1.5950 1.6060