Non-farm payrolls the main event of the month

<p>FX markets had a subdued Asian session, as per usual, in the build up to the most watched data release of the month, the US […]</p>

FX markets had a subdued Asian session, as per usual, in the build up to the most watched data release of the month, the US non-farm payrolls data.  Today is expected to still be a decent number for the NFP at 235k, which is less than the previous data of 248k.  The reason this is highly watched is the actual release can be very different and cause lots of volatility for the USD, and lots of swings in all the major pairs.

Since May of this year, the NFP has been above 200k except in the month of September where we see a big drop below, the consensus is that it will still stay above the 200k with a range of estimates from 195 – 300.

The pound struggled yesterday to hold on to any levels yesterday, dropping around 130 points. A lot of this was due to no change from the BoE, but this was what was expected, and just the pure dominance of the USD of late, with cable now trading below 1.5850.  Carney is speaking later and could bring some life back to the pound, but with the NFP in the wings, this could be short lived if data comes out of the US as expected.

The euro is also having a horrid time against the greenback and the ECB didn’t help with the dovish tone from Mario Draghi, ready to do more if needed.  With little data out today to help with its fall, it’s all up to the US data releases.


Supports  1.2320 1.2260 1.2150   | Resistance 1.2430 1.2490 1.2595



Supports 114.30 113.45 112.80  Resistance 114.90 115.70 116.40



Supports 1.5775 1.5710 1.5600  Resistance 1.5890 1.5950 1.6060



Build your confidence risk free
Join our live webinars for the latest analysis and trading ideas. Register now

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.