Non-farm Friday as investors brace themselves for a surprise
City Index February 7, 2014 3:10 PM
<p>The ECB left its monetary policy unchanged yesterday but it was the ever cautious President Mario Draghi’s press conference that left the euro bears frustrated. […]</p>
The ECB left its monetary policy unchanged yesterday but it was the ever cautious President Mario Draghi’s press conference that left the euro bears frustrated. He failed to provide a signal of further rate cuts or an LTRO whilst suggesting that the market should look at the bigger economic picture and not just the monthly HICP data when analysing inflation.
As we go to press the below headlines hit the wires which may show some insight into why a normally far more proactive ECB President than his predecessor has sat on the fence.
Germany’s constitutional court says it will rule on the legality of the ESM bailout mechanism and fiscal pact on March 18.
The German court says it sees substantial reasons to suggest the OMT programme exceeds the ECB’s mandate and infringes the ban on funding member states.
The Asian session saw the AUD trade a fresh weekly high, putting the lifestyle currency on track for its largest gain since September 2013. This follows the RBA’s quarterly statement on monetary policy that revised higher its forecast for growth and inflation.
Today’s data will be all about the US jobs report at 1.30pm. Special factors (the weather) will be making the January employment report especially difficult to forecast as the market is wider than usual, with forecasts ranging from 105k-270k.
The consensus is for a rise of 183k with the unemployment rate to drop from 6.7% to 6.6%.
This morning we see the release of production and manufacturing data from the UK and EU along with the UK’s visible trade balance.
Supports 1.3500-1.3460-1.3400 | Resistance 1.3640-1.3680-1.3740
Supports 101.85-101.30-100.75 | Resistance 102.75-103.00-103.50
Supports 1.6245-1.6210-1.6180 | Resistance 1.6360-1.6410-1.6460
GAIN Capital UK Limited (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.
No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.