Morning Briefing – Ruth Euro vs. Boris Sterling

<p>Sterling against the dollar is once again bid, though conviction has waned this morning.</p>

  • The pound against the dollar is once again bid, though conviction has waned this morning, with the least competitive offers around the 1.468s no longer being soaked up so enthusiastically.
  • The euro against sterling was not entirely playing ball either. It was just now only fractionally weaker at 76.8 pence. Well off lows, although this defiance still looks doomed, if the single currency can’t match 0.77, leaving the high 0.79s from just a few days ago well out of reach.
  • Overnight, referendum-related events did little to disrupt the recent momentum displayed by the Remain campaign, including between last night’s most closely watched television debaters Ruth Davidson, the leader of the Scottish Conservatives and Boris Johnson.
  • The BBC’s poll of its viewers after the debate, gave a verdict that showed 34% believed Remain argued their case better, but 39% who thought Leave had won the argument.
  • Wider polling might be, just might be, getting clearer than mud, but make no mistake there is no statistically significant bias either way. AKA, still too close to call.
  • A YouGov survey conducted after the TV debate was 41%/40% in favour of Remain; Survation earlier gave 45%/44% for Remain; ORB’s apparently final pre-referendum poll: 53%/46% Remain; FT’s Poll of Polls is saying 45% for Brexit, 44% Remain. Ladbrokes odds equated to 80% implied probability of a Remain vote, judging by 1/4 for Remain, vs. 25% for Leave (3/1).
  • Further polls are reportedly due from YouGov, TNS and Opinium on Wednesday, with an Ipsos Mori poll definitely scheduled for early Thursday, and potentially further surveys coming too, though the pollsters have gone cagey about their intentions for the night.
  • The clearest currency move this morning among the majors was by the yen against the dollar, which came roaring back overnight to reclaim control of the ¥104 handle from the bears, leaving the rate at ¥104.45 yen per dollar just now, and comfortably above the 105.84 handle which dollar bulls required for any sort of a comeback.
  • The big economic news from the region this morning is the postponement by the Ministry of Finance of a widely disliked rise in Japan’s sales tax. A Reuters poll showed most companies there backed the decision, though concern about the economic impact of delaying the hike might well be the reason why the ‘safe-haven’ yen is still getting a boost, even though the time-out is exactly what Japan Inc. has wanted for months.
  • As stock markets settle firmly into wait-and-see mode, performances have been mixed, with small up and downticks in Asia, the FTSE currently trading 9 points higher and the DAX up 0.3%, whilst the US is looking flat so far.
  • Those looking for a Brexit break from the other items on the macroeconomic agenda can tune into Janet Yellen’s testimony on Capitol Hill again. It will continue for its second day. We don’t think there was any new clear guidance one way or the other from day one.
  • Canadian Retail Sales, US Existing Home Sales and of course the EIA Petroleum report will also be on tap.


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