Moody’s lowers European big guns outlook as we await Troika arrival in Greece today
City Index July 24, 2012 1:00 PM
<p> EUR/USD Range: 1.2110-1.2137 Support: 1.2050 Resistance: 1.2210 The single currency consolidates towards the year’s lows after ratings agency Moody’s cut the ratings outlook for […]</p>
The single currency consolidates towards the year’s lows after ratings agency Moody’s cut the ratings outlook for Germany, Netherlands and Luxembourg from stable to AAA negative. Troika, ECB and IMF officials are visiting Athens today where I’m sure the new coalition Government will start trying to discuss amendments to the bailout agreements.FX markets have been quiet, with the EUR trading in a 30 point range. Expect all eyes to be on Spain again today following yesterday’s poor price action as Spanish 10-year bond yields hit an intraday high of 7.56% and the IBEX fell 5.4% at one point although managed to bounce to close back at 7.5% and -1.1% respectively after the short selling ban announcements in Italy and Spain.
Range: 1.5498 – 1.5535
Sterling continues to be sidelined in tight ranges ahead of the UK GDP data tomorrow which is expected to show the UK still in a technical recession. UK lending data is released this morning at 9.30am but I expect near term fortunes for sterling to be driven by the Euro. EUR/GBP continues to trade under pressure with near term resistance now seen at 0.7850.
A slightly stronger Chinese HSBC flash PMI reading of 49.5 from 48.20 in June kept risk positive in the Asian session which supported the lifestyle currency. RBA governor Stevens called AUSTRALIA’S ECONOMY `REMARKABLY GOOD’ and CHINA INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT `LONG WAY FROM A CONTRACTION’. Overall, a broad speech on the positive recent performance of Australian economy and how it’s well positioned going forward. On the inflation front, he commented that *RBA’S STEVENS SAYS LABOR MKT, INFLATION LEVELS `NOT TOO SHABBY’ and SEES TOMORROW’S INFLATION RATE NEAR 2%.