Lower oil takes shine off the dollar

The dollar rally takes a step back in Asia taking its cue from the oil market as WTI trades at the $44.50 level, which is just above the March 2009 low. The further demise of black gold has been initiated by a report from the IEA on Friday that suggested that the demand in February was met with increased supply from the non OPEC community. The dollar index has moved back below the physiological 100 level after making a fresh high off 100.39 last week with the market citing a weak retail sales report being followed up with a disappointing Michigan confidence index survey on Friday. The industrial production data released today will be closely monitored for signs of a further US slowdown, although the adverse weather in the US is being cited as a large contributing factor.

The Chinese premier gave the Shanghai composite and Hang Seng a boost as he reiterated his support to carry out structural reforms rather than pursue a higher growth number and reduce state control. This was seen as preparing the way for further stimulus measures as he highlighted that the government has more tools available, should a lower growth outcome affect employment.

The CFTC data revealed that AUD shorts increased to their highest level in 5 years, as the world’s largest asset manager Blackrock painted a dismal picture of the state of the Australian economy. It highlighted that nominal growth could be at its lowest level for 50 years and suggested that AUD below 0.7000 by the end of March would not be a surprise.

EUR/USD
Supports 1.0435-1.0340-1.0285 | Resistance 1.0665-1.0825-1.0990

USD/JPY
Supports  119.50-118.65-116.70 | Resistance 122.45-123.70-124.15

GBP/USD
Supports 1.4550-1.4350-1.4250 | Resistance 1.5100-1.5250-1.5345