IMF Warns of a further global growth decline

<p>FX markets this morning are exactly where European trading left them yesterday following the US Columbus day holiday. The main news overnight was the latest […]</p>

FX markets this morning are exactly where European trading left them yesterday following the US Columbus day holiday. The main news overnight was the latest IMF report which warned of an ‘alarmingly high risk of deeper global slowdown’ whilst urging Europe and the US to address the threats to their economies. The key points addressed to the G10 currency space are below.

Global growth forecasts to 3.3% for 2012 (previous 3.5%). This is the slowest rate since 2009 and 3.6% in 2013 (previous 3.9%).

–    In the eurozone, which the IMF forecasts to contract by 0.4% in 2012, and expand by 0.2% next year

–    UK growth was revised down to 0.4% contraction from 0.2% expansion earlier for 2012 and 1.1% expansion in 2013 from 1.4% earlier

–    Upgraded growth prospects for US which would grow at 2.2% this year up by 0.1% estimated earlier

–    The Chinese economy was expected to grow 7.8% in 2012 and 8.2% in 2013, the IMF said down from 8% and 8.5% earlier

–    Australia will grow at 3% in 2013, down from 3.5% expected earlier. In 2012 the rate of growth will be 3.3% in line with the RBA estimate

There is little in the way of data today with the highlight being this morning at 9.30am when the latest UK trade balance will be released. The Q3 US earnings season starts today with today’s focus likely to be Alcoa and Chevron.



Supports 1.2960-1.2935-1.2870 | Resistance 1.3000-1.3030-1.3070


Supports 78.00-77.75-77.35 | Resistance 78.50-78.85-79.25


Supports 1.6000-1.5960-1.5910 | Resistance 1.6085-1.6120-1.6175


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