Greece talks continue to confuse the EUR

With the Greece and Eurogroup discussions and negotiations still on-going, yesterday was a battle for the Euro as the comments hit the wires. The main comments to emerge were from the Greek Deputy minister who said that Greece will not seek bailout extension, and will not be blackmailed. So more to come from this and the latest is that a deal could be reached today, although we could see this drag on until the last minute – which is being said to be 27th February. The euro is currently trading back below the 1.1400 level as we await more comments.

The pound was caught within a range yesterday between a high of 1.5400 and a low of 1.5314, which has continued today as it trades bang in the middle of yesterday’s range. The UK inflation data didn’t disappoint, with a further drop to 0.3% yesterday. The GBP took the news rather well as it was prepared for the drop and perhaps any further falls to come.

Today’s data is all important to the recovery of the economy and will be volatile time for the GBP as the average earnings are released and expected not to have moved at 1.7%, with the claimant count change expected to be weaker than last at -25.2k from -29.7. Finally, the MPC official bank rate votes are revealed with the expectation of being the same as last time: a clear 0 for rate increase, 0 for a decrease in rates, and 9 for a hold on rates.

The main data out today will be from the US as the FOMC minutes are released, with the expectations of a moderate growth and rate raise in mid-2015. Some extra bits to look for are the effect of the drop in oil and the ongoing European and Greece affairs. US building permits and PPI are also being released  today with a rise in building permits expected and PPI expected to fall to -0.4%.

EUR/USD
Supports 1.1345-1.1270-1.1210  | Resistance 1.1470-1.1520-1.1600

USD/JPY
Supports  118.51-117.80-117.30 | Resistance 119.70-120.15-120.90

GBP/USD
Supports 1.5315-1.5270-1.5230 | Resistance 1.5400-1.5450-1.5490