Greece secures participants but activates the CAC as focus switches to NFP today

<p>EUR/USD Range: 1.3216-1.3278 Support: 1.3070 Resistance: 1.3330 Greece has said that 85.8% of bondholders had accepted its bond swap offer and that the number would […]</p>


Range: 1.3216-1.3278
Support: 1.3070
Resistance: 1.3330

Greece has said that 85.8% of bondholders had accepted its bond swap offer and that the number would rise to 95.7% participation as the collective action clauses are accepted, which Athens has said it now intends to activate. The euro came off 30 points on the announcement in a classic buy the rumour sell the fact market scenario. So with EUR/USD in a seemingly 1.31-1.33 range, the focus will switch from Greece today to the US jobs report.

Range: 1.5790 – 1.5833
Support: 1.5640
Resistance: 1.5880

Not much to add from a fundamental point of view as the MPC left rates and QE unchanged as expected yesterday. This morning we will get Industrial production data at 9.30am with expectations of 0.5% ahead of the US jobs data this afternoon. For me GBP still seems to be holding up well after the mini sell off post the Greek news this morning so I’m looking for a close today above the 200-day moving average at 1.5880 for a test of 1.6100 next week.
Range: 81.46-81.89
Support: 81.30
Resistance: 82.00

USD/JPY has bounced back from the early week sell off which I believe cleansed positioning but the US dollar’s resilience this week has been impressive and with demand seen into the Tokyo fix last night the pair made a new high for 2012 of 81.89. The focus today will be non-farm payrolls and with this pair dominated on how the US yield curve reacts to the release with solid resistance seen at 82.00. The market is looking for a headline number of 210 thousand with the unemployment rate looking to hold at 8.3%.

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