Gold Shines As Rate Cut Hopes Overshadow Trade Fears

As rate cut optimism trumps global trade concerns, gold is pushing higher.

Once again weaker US data has investors eyeing up a rate cut by the Fed. Investors are so carried away with the prospect of lower rates that they as good as ignored Trump’s latest half a trillion-dollar threat on China.

As rate cut optimism trumps global trade concerns, gold is pushing higher. The precious metal extended gains for a seventh straight session, in a week that has seen it jump 2.2% in value. This is the longest winning streak for gold since Jan 2018. 

Today’s softer jobless claims figures come following a huge downside surprise in private sector job creation yesterday leaving investors unconfident that tomorrows non-farm payroll will be able to hit expectations. 

NFP Expectations:
185,000 jobs created vs 263,000 May
Hourly earnings 0.3% vs 0.2% May
Annual earnings 3.2% vs. 3.2% May
Unemployment 3.6% vs 3.6% May

Weaker job creation and stalling wage growth will boost expectations of a Fed cut sooner rather than later, pulling the dollar lower whilst lifting gold. Should the data surprise to the upside gold could be quickly paring gains.

Gold levels to watch:
The momentum of the gold run is still in play. Gold pushed through resistance at $1333, which now is its near term support. The bulls are aiming for $1346. This is the key resistance, the 2019 high so far. A mover above her could open the doors to $1367. On the downside a move below $1333 on stronger non farm payroll figures could see gold move lower towards $1323.

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