GDP will seal FOMC Q1 slowdown acknowledgement

The USD continues to trade on the back foot in European trading following further weaker data from across the pond yesterday, this time in the form of consumer confidence which dropped to 95.2 this month from 101.4 in March and a consensus estimate of 102.50. The European session has seen the EUR/USD trade back above 1.10 which confirms the entire correction seen in March, following the release of NFP on Good Friday. There are certainly some positive indications from the fresh Greek negotiating team on the EU reform proposals.

The pound continues to trade with a constructive tone following the weaker growth data on Monday. The pound’s out-performance was confirmed by the technical close above the 21 day moving average at 1.5177 which points to a target of 1.5550. I would also like to highlight to investors that political risk headwinds remain this week for sterling in the form of the live Q&A television debate that will be attended on Thursday by the 3 main parties.

The US GDP reading will be scrutinised for any improvements on the weather distorted 1% that is consensus as the main focus today will be on the FOMC. The market is expecting the statement to remain similar to what we heard in March, with some speculation that the committee may tweak the reference to ‘strong job gains’ following the disappointing jobs data as any comment on inflation will be scrutinised following the rise in energy prices. There is no press conference following the meeting this month.

EUR/USD
Support 1.0950-1.0880-1.0820 | Resistance 1.1020-1.-1.1050-1.1220

USD/JPY
Support 118.70-118.30-117.50 | Resistance 119.40-120.00-120.85

GBP/USD
Support 1.5330-1.5250-1.5170 | Resistance 1.5410-1.5450-1.5530