FX markets trade sideways as US GDP estimate figures awaited

<p>We have seen a very sideways week so far in the FX markets. Weather affected data in the US is still keeping rates where they […]</p>

We have seen a very sideways week so far in the FX markets. Weather affected data in the US is still keeping rates where they are until we get a clearer picture of how the US is doing with the cuts in asset purchases not showing in the recent month.

The main driver this week has been the unrest in Ukraine which has continued and has the potential to throw the markets out of sync on any news. This has mainly been helping safe haven currencies like the yen, which gained strength overnight. Some good data released from Japan also helped it move with factory orders jumping and inflation inching up in the right direction. But there’s still some anxiety around as this shows the economy could be ready to handle the sales tax hike proposed in April.

Today has the potential to get things livened up for the end of month data. We start with the EU CPI flash estimate, expected at 0.7%. There is no change from the previous estimate – a drop here will most certainly push the euro lower as the negative rates will be back on the cards from the ECB. With comments from Draghi last night saying that the eurozone was clearly not in deflation, it is possible that this data will keep it a low but steady reading.

US preliminary GDP are set to be released this afternoon, with a big cut predicted to 2.6% from the previous 3.2%. This leaves a lot of space for a surprise and will no doubt be the main event as more weather impacted data could continue or a surprise upward figure will start to give the USD some strength.



Supports 1.3685 1.3645 1.3580 | Resistance 1.3725 1.3740 1.3780



Supports 101.65 101.40 101 | Resistance 102.20 102.40 102.80



Supports  1.6720 1.6670 1.6620 | Resistance 1.6760 1.6800 1.6820


Build your confidence risk free
Join our live webinars for the latest analysis and trading ideas. Register now

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.