European Open: Cable Steady Ahead of BOE, German IFO Up Next

All eyes on the FTSE and British pound today as we find out if the BOE will bow to ‘inflationary pressures’ and taper some more.

UK

Asian Indices:

  • Australia's ASX 200 index fell by -9.3 points (-0.13%) and currently trades at 7,289.20
  • Japan's Nikkei 225 index has risen by 45.23 points (0.16%) and currently trades at 28,920.12
  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng index has fallen by -6.76 points (-0.02%) and currently trades at 28,810.31

UK and Europe:

  • UK's FTSE 100 futures are currently up 8 points (0.11%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 7,082.06
  • Euro STOXX 50 futures are currently up 10 points (0.25%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 4,085.94
  • Germany's DAX futures are currently up 24 points (0.16%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 15,480.39

US Futures:

  • DJI futures are currently down -71.34 points (-0.21%)
  • S&P 500 futures are currently up 36.5 points (0.26%)
  • Nasdaq 100 futures are currently up 9.75 points (0.23%)


Learn how to trade indices


Futures tick higher, Asian equities in holding patterns

It was a mixed session overnight in Asia as equities are mostly in holding patterns ahead of tomorrow’s inflation data from the US. That said, futures markets are pointing to a higher open for Europe and US and the FTSE 100 is expected top open 8 points higher at 7082.06.

Despite rising to a three-day high, the FTSE 100 was dragged lower with European and US equities later in the session to close the day -0.23% lower and form a bearish hammer, beneath its 10-day eMA. A break beneath 7073.55 (yesterday’s low) also places it beneath the weekly pivot point, and confirms our bearish bias for the day. Its next major support level is 7043 – 7046, then 7025 ad 7,000. Key resistance levels are 7100 and 7129.  


German IFO and BOE meeting in focus

Today’s calendar events kick off at 09:00 with Germany’s IFO business report, with all three headline figures (current assessment, business climate and expectations) all expected. If they can beat expectations then it should help European indices ad the euro lift themselves from yesterday’s lows.

But the main focus is on the BOE (Bank of England) who reveal their monetary policy meeting at 12:00 today. Whilst there is no expectations for a hike (far from it in fact), traders want know if they’ll taper their asset purchases again, or see an increase in voting members wanting to hike. As Fiona Cincotta points out, above target inflation could decide whether they remain dovish or lean towards a slightly hawkish stance.


FTSE 350: Market Internals


FTSE 350: 4056.33 (-0.2%) 23 June 2021

  • 138 (39.32%) stocks advanced and 202 (57.55%) declined
  • 19 stocks rose to a new 52-week high, 2 fell to new lows
  • 84.62% of stocks closed above their 200-day average
  • 70.37% of stocks closed above their 50-day average
  • 14.25% of stocks closed above their 20-day average

Outperformers:

  • + 4.86% - Trainline PLC ( TRNT.L)
  • + 4.35% - Micro Focus International PLC (MCRO.L)
  • + 4.06% - Tullow Oil PLC (TLW.L)

Underperformers:

  • -3.10%   -  Beazley PLC  (BEZG.L) 
  • -3.81%   -  Meggitt PLC  (MGGT.L) 
  • -4.88%   -  RHI Magnesita NV (RHIM.L) 


Tight ranges for forex pairs ahead of BOE

Ranges were very tight across the FX space, although AUD and NZD are ticking higher with futures markets whilst CHF and JPY are the weakest. Call it a very mild dose of risk-on if you will.

The US dollar index formed a Doji yesterday to show bearish momentum is waning, and its lower tail stopped just shy of 91.44 support. Given the three-day pullback on AUD, NZD, EUR and GBP, we may find volatility remains capped ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report (which could prove make or break for the greenback).

GBP/CHF broke higher and stopped just shy of our 1.2850 target yesterday before printing a bearish hammer o the daily chart. Whilst prices have drifted higher overnight, the BOE meeting could just as easily send it through 1.2850 today or back into its nine-week range below 1.2817.


GBP/USD has gained 1.2% over the past week, although remains -1.7% lower this month. Volatility has remained typically low overnight ahead of today’s BOE meeting, and prices are holding around the mid-way point of yesterday’s range.

Resistance was found at 1.4000 yesterday and prices printed a two-bar reversal on the four-hour chart. Prices have since found support at the 10-bar eMA, making a range between the 1.3950 – 1.4000 area.

Should traders be treated to a hawkish BOE meeting then a retest of 1.4000 seems more than easy pickings. But take note that the weekly R1 pivot sits at 1.4017, so it may have to be a particularly hawkish surprise to break convincingly above it. Should the BOE be a none-event (or be a dovish surprise) and / or the dollar strengthen, then a clear break beneath 1.3945 switches our bias to bearish over the near-term.


Learn how to trade forex


Commodities:


Copper futures found resistance at 4.340 yesterday, and we expect it to be a pivotal level today. Prices are currently testing trendline support on the hourly chart, projected from the June 1t low, which could create opportunities for bulls or bears depending on which way momentum breaks today.

Gold and silver futures remains in tight ranges off their weekly lows, but in both cases they have failed to take advantage of the dollar’s retracement, so should dollar strength return look out below.


Up Next (Times in BST)


You can view all the scheduled events for today using our economic calendar, and keep up to date with the latest market news and analysis here.


How to trade with City Index

Follow these easy steps to start trading with City Index today:

  1. Open a City Index account, or log-in if you’re already a customer.
  2. Search for the market you want to trade in our award-winning platform.
  3. Choose your position and size, and your stop and limit levels.
  4. Place the trade.

Build your confidence risk free

More from Commodities

Join our live webinars for the latest analysis and trading ideas. Register now

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.