European Open: Biden Addresses Congress, S&P Futures Hit New Highs
Matt Simpson April 29, 2021 5:58 AM
US futures rose overnight, following Joe Biden’s first formal address to congress where he pitched his $1.8 trillion stimulus package.
- Australia's ASX 200 index rose by 25.8 points (0.37%) and currently trades at 7,090.50
- Japan's Nikkei 225 index has risen by 62.08 points (0.21%) and currently trades at 29,053.67
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng index has risen by 163.72 points (0.56%) and currently trades at 29,235.06
UK and Europe:
- UK's FTSE 100 futures are currently up 12 points (0.17%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 6,975.67
- Euro STOXX 50 futures are currently up 6 points (0.15%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 4,021.03
- Germany's DAX futures are currently up 22 points (0.14%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 15,314.18
Wednesday US Close:
- The Dow Jones Industrial fell -164.55 points (-0.48%) to close at 33,820.38
- The S&P 500 index rose -3.54 points (0.01%) to close at 4,183.18
- The Nasdaq 100 index fell -58.66 points (-0.42%) to close at 13,901.62
S&P E-Mini Futures Rise to New Highs Overnight
Joe Biden formally addressed congress today for the first time, unveiling his latest $1.8 trillion stimulus plan and asking Republicans to work with Democrats on divisive issues. Given Republican’s icy response, the plans may need a lot more work. Still, US futures broke to new highs, Nasdaq rising 0.9%, S&P E-minis gaining around 0.6% and Dow Jones futures up around 0.25%. It was a more impressive response than yesterday’s FOMC meeting, that’s for sure.
Structurally, momentum is beginning to turn higher again on the S&P 500 E-mini, at its record highs. Whilst we saw three days of sideways trading, the four-hour chart shows a gradual rise in demand, beginning with the bullish engulfing candle at 5163.75. And whilst the opening spike overnight has found resistance at the monthly R1 pivot level, we suspect it is a temporary setback, so any low volatility dips towards support levels remain appealing for bulls.
- Today’s bias remains bullish above the 4184.27 – 4188.25 support zone.
- Low volatility retracements within the prior four-hour candle could be appealing to bulls.
- A break above 4203.25 confirms bullish continuation.
European sectors were mixed yesterday, with banking, oil and energy stocks supporting the STOXX 600 whilst industrial goods and services and technology stocks weighed on the broader index, which closed flat at +0.02%. European futures have also just opened slightly higher following yesterday’s dovish FOMC meeting and Joe Biden’s address to congress.
The FTSE 100 put in another marginal high yesterday, yet closed near a similar level to the prior session. Due to the lack of bullish momentum it is still hard to be too excited about its rise, especially with 7,000 resistance just above. Still, perhaps there will be a tailwind from future at the open, but if we see bearish momentum return around 7,000, be vigilant.
FTSE 350: Market Internals
FTSE 350: 6963.67 (0.27%) 28 April 2021
- 172 (49.00%) stocks advanced and 167 (47.58%) declined
- 40 stocks rose to a new 52-week high, 4 fell to new lows
- 84.9% of stocks closed above their 200-day average
- 22.22% of stocks closed above their 20-day average
- + 11.8% - Grafton Group PLC (GFTU.L)
- + 4.46% - 888 Holdings PLC (888.L)
- + 4.27% - WPP PLC (WPP.L)
- -7.60% - FirstGroup PLC (FGP.L)
- -6.68% - Dixons Carphone PLC (DC.L)
- -4.54% - Avon Rubber PLC (AVON.L)
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Crypto: Ethereum Hones in on 2,800
Ethereum (ETH/USD) edged -2% lower overnight after failing to retake its prior days record high. Given how ETH has reacted around $100 milestones recently, we remain conscious that is it fast approaching 2,800 and the four-hour hanging man candle shows a slight hesitancy to push higher. However, whilst we don’t consider ETH as a potential short, it is one to be cautious of, if bullish.
Bitcoin continues to make hard work breaking above its resistance cluster, so we remain on guard for a leg lower. A break beneath 53,900 today could provide the trigger for some bearish follow through.
Forex: USD Looks Set For a Minor Bounce
Currencies are little changed from NY close prices, although a few spiker have appeared worth noting. NZD/USD is forming a bearish pinbar after failing to hold above 0.7270 resistance, and NZD/JPY is displaying a similar pattern after failing to retest the 79.14 high.
The US dollar index (DXY) slipped to a fresh nine-week low overnight but has recovered all its losses. That still doesn’t put it in a very good spot though. Our core bias remains bearish beneath yesterday’s bearish engulfing high. The four-hour chart displays a strong bearish trend, although support has been found at the monthly S1 pivot, so perhaps a retracement is due over the near-term.
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Commodities: Gold Probes its 200-day eMA
Oil prices extended gains overnight, after bullish forecasts for demand were raised yesterday. WTI is up 0.27% and sits at $64.02, brent futures have risen 0.31% and trade at 67.50.
Gold prices stopped just shy of its 200-day eMA, printing an overnight high of 1790 before turning lower. Yesterday’s bullish hammer perfectly respected the 20 and 50-day eMA to show demand around its support cluster between 1760/69.60. Our bias remains bullish above 1760 and for a retest (and eventual break) of 1800.
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