Once again the major fx markets are relatively subdued today as we wait and see if there is going to be a Brexit vote by Parliament in the UK today. If the vote passes today, the most likely overcome for the Pound will be positive, while a failure to pass will most likely be negative. Therefore, if passed, the UK will have a deal in place for UK to leave the EU, but what does that mean for the Euro?
Euro pairs will mostly likely behave the same as the GBP pairs from the Brexit vote, although probably not to the same extent. If the vote gets passed, EUD/USD will have some work to do in order to move higher. After testing the lows of the descending wedge in early October, the pair has gone bid on hopes that a Brexit Deal can be reached. The pair is currently consolidating near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the highs on June 25th to the lows on October 1st bear 1.1135. This level sits just below the 200 Day Moving Average at 1.1206 and the descending trendline from the descending wedge near 1.1230. As the RSI is currently near Overbought conditions, bulls may look for a pullback towards the 1.1000 horizontal and psychological level to get long (as the RSI unwinds), then target a break higher towards the 1.1400 level. Below the 1.1000 support level, there is strong support near 1.0900, which is the convergence of the downward sloping trendline from the shorter-term channel from the end of June, prior lows on October 1st, and the bottom trendline from the previously mentioned descending wedge.
Source: Tradingview, City Index
Let’s not forget about Draghi’s final ECB meeting on Thursday. Expectations are low for any kind of changes to the outcome of September’s meeting. Draghi will likely make his point to dissenters that the easing policy is necessary for economic stability given the European Manufacturing slowdown. However, never count Draghi out for a surprise in the Q&A! But although this is his final meeting before Christine Lagarde takes over as ECB President, he may not want to rock the boat.
Also note that Global PMIs are due out Thursday. Big misses to the downside will likely spur a selloff in Euro pairs as the Eurozone economy continues to contract.
GAIN Capital UK Limited (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.
No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.