Euro rallies as German courts rule in favour of ESM

<p>A choppy start to the London session yesterday as markets awaited Germany’s ruling on the constitutionality of the ESM. Germany’s constitutional court voted not to […]</p>

A choppy start to the London session yesterday as markets awaited Germany’s ruling on the constitutionality of the ESM. Germany’s constitutional court voted not to stop the ratification of the ESM. The markets responding favourably, causing the euro to rally in relief and printing a fresh high of 1.2932.

German leader Angela Merkel seemed pleased with the court’s conclusion, calling it ‘A good day’.  However, the ruling did not come without caveats, the most prominent being a cap on Germany’s contribution to the fund; which already contributes up to 27%. Critics had previously argued that the conditions of the ESM exposed Germany to potentially unlimited contributions to the fund. The euro quickly retraced some of its gains and settled around 1.2900 for the overnight session.

The focus now turns towards this week’s highlight – the FOMC meeting this evening. The markets remain divided in expectation. Although initially the consensus seemed confident for outright QE3 especially following weak non-farm payrolls,  strong arguments against further easing have more recently surfaced. Therefore despite expectations for further easing, the markets remain sceptical for fear of disappointment. We are expecting the FOMC statement to be released at around 5.30pm this evening, with a further budget balance and press conference to be held at 7pm.

Other data and news events due for release today is the ECB monthly bulletin at 9am. The Bulletin traditionally reveals data and indicators assessed during the most recent interest rate decision. It also provides an insight into the bank’s mid to long term expectations. Finally, PPI and unemployment claims will be released at 1.30pm this afternoon, forecasted at 1.1% and 370k respectively.


Supports 1.2810 | Resistance 1.2980


Supports 78.40 | Resistance 76.80


Supports 1.6020 | Resistance 1.6208


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