EUR/CAD Stalls At Major Juncture Ahead Of NFP

EUR/CAD is trying to break lower on the weekly charts, and today’s close along with which way it breaks outside of yesterday’s could be key for how the cross trades next week.

EUR/CAD is trying to break lower on the weekly charts, and today’s close along with which way it breaks outside of yesterday’s could be key for how the cross trades next week.

Starting with the bigger picture, EUR/CAD is attempting to break beneath its April 2015 trendline on the weekly chart. Prices are already trading below it, but not by a comfortable enough margin. Moreover, a weekly close either side of 1.4760 could impact sentient early next week, as a failed attempt to break lower could be taken as a near-term bullish sign.

Still, we like how bearish range expansion has broken it out of compression, and prices broke below the 200-day eMA, so the core view is for a weaker EUR/CAD once any minor rebound has played out. That said, we’d want to see 1.4863 cap as resistance if prices retrace higher on the daily chart to keep our bearish bias on the weekly chart.



Switching to the daily chart, an inverted hammer has formed at the lows and its high perfectly respected 1.4761 resistance, to show markets are clearly watching this pivotal level. However, the fall from 1.5081 has yet to see a pullback, and RSI(2) has hit oversold and curled up to generate a potential, near-term buy signal.

Obviously, with Canada releasing employment data alongside today’s NFP report with Ivey PMI data shortly after, expect some volatility heading into the weekend.


To approach this tactically, keep a close eye on yesterday’s range.

  • We’d be interested in bullish setups above yesterday’s high, and bearish setups beneath yesterday’s low.
  • If it breaks higher, ear-term bias remain bullish towards key resistance, although weekly bias remains bearish if prices find resistance here.
  • A break beneath yesterday’s low opens-up a run for the 1.4637 low over the near-term.
  • Weekly bias is for a run towards the 1.4443/88 lows


Related analysis:
NFP preview: Wages in focus as rate cut looms
Oil Slips On Growing Concerns Over Global Downturn


Join our live webinars for the latest analysis and trading ideas. Register now

GAIN Capital UK Limited (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.