EUR/GBP could drop as GBP attempts to regain poise

<p>Yesterday we wrote a piece on the GBP/USD in which we highlighted the possibility of a sterling recovery due to rising levels of inflation in […]</p>

Yesterday we wrote a piece on the GBP/USD in which we highlighted the possibility of a sterling recovery due to rising levels of inflation in the UK, which we believe will prevent the Bank of England from further loosening monetary policy. This morning, the pound initially fell further against the dollar and euro, but it has since bounced back to trade almost flat against both. It is far too early to call it a recovery, but the potential is there nonetheless.

Now against the euro, the pound may be able to make a more significant recovery than against the dollar because of the fact the ECB is a significantly more dovish central bank than the Fed. I believe the EUR/GBP has already topped out when it failed to hold its own above the 0.90 handle post the Brexit vote. Therefore the recovery we have seen of late represents, in my view, a normal retracement in what I think is going to be a downward-trending market.

The EUR/GBP could stage a much deeper retracement before it potentially falters, but it has respected the 0.8760/5 resistance level today which is interesting to note because the GBP/USD has in the meantime arrived at its own support area around 1.2100, as we highlighted yesterday. In fact, the EUR/GBP is currently displaying a reversal-looking candlestick formation on its daily chart off of this level: an inverted hammer/long-legged doji. This pattern will be confirmed if remains around the current levels by the close of play. The cross would look more bearish if it finds itself back below the broken resistances at 0.8705 or ideally 0.8670 now. If that happens then this could lead to further follow-up technical selling pressure in the days and weeks to come, initially towards 0.8500 but potentially beyond over time.

In the short-term, my bearish outlook would become invalidated if the EUR/GBP rises above 0.8760/5 resistance level. In this potential scenario, the next bullish objective or line of defence for the bears is at 0.8860, previously support.

17-01-10-eurgbp

Join our live webinars for the latest analysis and trading ideas. Register now

GAIN Capital UK Limited (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.