ECB in focus this week

<p>Official Chinese manufacturing PMI data showed signs that the recovery is gathering pace as the index came in at 50.8, above the consensus forecast of […]</p>

Official Chinese manufacturing PMI data showed signs that the recovery is gathering pace as the index came in at 50.8, above the consensus forecast of 50.6. Media reports suggest Chinese officials are looking at further possible options for ‘targeted monetary loosening’. The HSBC manufacturing index backed up the stronger official data, printing a reading of 52.4 and showing an improvement in domestic activity. AUD initially traded higher towards 0.9320 on the upbeat Chinese data but the domestic releases have highlighted concerns for the GDP release on Wednesday as building approvals collapsed to -5.6% versus a forecast of +2%, taking the lifestyle currency back to the 0.9250 level.

News from Tokyo has seen USD/JPY trade above 102 on media speculation over the weekend that the Japanese government is considering a higher ceiling and an extended period of tax-beneficial investment accounts as Dai-ichi Life Insurance are preparing to acquire American life insurer Protective Life for an estimated $4.87 billion.

This week market focus will be on the ECB meeting on Thursday where expectations are very high for a significant policy adjustment, with the CFTC data showing the position adjustment has an awful lot priced in. The risk is another disappointment as the market will at least need to see cuts in the re-financing and deposit rates along with a targeted measure in the form of another LTRO initiative as an end to SMP sterilisation all seem to be in the price.

Today we get the latest manufacturing PMI data from Europe, UK and the US along with lending data from the UK and the ISM reading from across the pond.



Supports 1.3580-1.3560-1.3520 | Resistance 1.3675-1.3700-1.3730




Supports 101.50-101.20-100.75 | Resistance 102.15-102.40-102.85




Supports 1.6720-1.6690-1.6670 | Resistance 1.6780-1.6800-1.6830


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