News and analysis

If you’re waiting for economic events outside the United States to spark the next wave of currency market volatility, you’re looking in the wrong place. Because in the absence of a black or grew-swan type event, it will almost certainly come from within the United States.

It has been a risk-on session so far, with equity indices rising sharply for the second consecutive day ahead of Tesla’s earnings tonight and other big tech companies reporting this week. Also on the rise today have been markets such as crude oil, the EUR/USD and even the GBP/USD. Sentiment was lifted by stronger PMI data from the services sector in Europe and UK, alleviating growth concerns even if the manufacturing sector PMI continued to remain depressed.

US indices point to a stronger start as corporate earnings continue to roll in. Earnings are providing a welcomed distraction after worries over the Fed keeping rates high for longer hurt sentiment last week. US PMI data is due shortly and is expected to show business activity grew at a faster pace. Tesla is due to report after the close after the EV maker's deliveries fell in Q1 and as the share price trades down 40% this year.

Has gold selling already or nearly done? Gold remains fundamentally supported in the long term, although there is room for further correction. Gold technical analysis shows prices are no longer as overbought as a couple of weeks ago.

FTSE rises to a record high as the GBP struggles around a 5-month low. EUR/USD looks to PMI data.

The US dollar rally has stalled, and the longer is fails to extends its gains the greater the odds of a pullback. For today, flash PMIs have placed GBP/USD and EUR/USD into focus.

The bigger the rally the harder the fall? Traders dabbling in the precious metals space may be asking that exact question with gold and silver extending their losses on Tuesday after a brutal start to the week.

There has been a shakeup at the top for gold, which opened the week at the high and closed the day at the low during its worst day in two years. We also look at a potential swing trade long on WTI crude oil.

Whether you want to call it a bullish hammer, dragonfly doji, false break or morning star, the price action on the AUD/USD daily suggests the path of least resistance is higher in the near-term.