Disappointing Chinese data ahead of the NFPs

<p>Chinese data once again disappointed overnight as the trade surplus narrowed to $25.6 billion, which was considerably weaker than the forecast $33 billion as exports […]</p>

Chinese data once again disappointed overnight as the trade surplus narrowed to $25.6 billion, which was considerably weaker than the forecast $33 billion as exports rose 4.3% versus the 5% expected. AUD initially weakened but as new home sales in Australia rose at their fastest pace in four years, the lifestyle currency regained the 0.8900 handle.

The euro remains resilient ahead of the US jobs report this afternoon following yesterday’s failure below the 1.3550 support level. This was in spite of an extremely dovish press conference from ECB President Mario Draghi who emphasised that the ECB would take ‘further decisive action’ if inflation weakened to dangerously low levels.

Today is all about NFPs and for me the risk is a weaker number, with the bar being raised to lofty heights following the blowout ADP report number of 238k on Wednesday. I note that all the major banks have increased their forecasts following Wednesday’s number with the consensus now just shy of 200k at 197k with the unemployment level at 7% but I will add further caution as the weather can often play a part this time of year so any big deviation from forecasts first needs to be checked off against those workers who could not work or worked reduced hours due to inclement weather.



Supports 1.3545-1.3525-1.3485 | Resistance 1.3685-1.3725-1.3765



Supports 104.50-104.10-103.60 | Resistance 105.10-105.50-106.00



Supports 1.6425-1.6370-1.6330 | Resistance 1.6485-1.6500-1.6600

Build your confidence risk free
Join our live webinars for the latest analysis and trading ideas. Register now

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.