Disappointing Chinese data ahead of the NFPs

<p>Chinese data once again disappointed overnight as the trade surplus narrowed to $25.6 billion, which was considerably weaker than the forecast $33 billion as exports […]</p>

Chinese data once again disappointed overnight as the trade surplus narrowed to $25.6 billion, which was considerably weaker than the forecast $33 billion as exports rose 4.3% versus the 5% expected. AUD initially weakened but as new home sales in Australia rose at their fastest pace in four years, the lifestyle currency regained the 0.8900 handle.

The euro remains resilient ahead of the US jobs report this afternoon following yesterday’s failure below the 1.3550 support level. This was in spite of an extremely dovish press conference from ECB President Mario Draghi who emphasised that the ECB would take ‘further decisive action’ if inflation weakened to dangerously low levels.

Today is all about NFPs and for me the risk is a weaker number, with the bar being raised to lofty heights following the blowout ADP report number of 238k on Wednesday. I note that all the major banks have increased their forecasts following Wednesday’s number with the consensus now just shy of 200k at 197k with the unemployment level at 7% but I will add further caution as the weather can often play a part this time of year so any big deviation from forecasts first needs to be checked off against those workers who could not work or worked reduced hours due to inclement weather.

 

EUR/USD

Supports 1.3545-1.3525-1.3485 | Resistance 1.3685-1.3725-1.3765

 



USD/JPY

Supports 104.50-104.10-103.60 | Resistance 105.10-105.50-106.00

 



GBP/USD

Supports 1.6425-1.6370-1.6330 | Resistance 1.6485-1.6500-1.6600

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