Market News & Analysis
DAX starts key week with a stall
Ken Odeluga April 8, 2019 3:07 PM
A light fillip to risk from China’s stimulus tweak was short-lived
In Europe, the latest soft print of German data (imports and exports fell hard in February) set the tone, tilting sentiment to the cautious side. The backdrop is U.S.-China trade talks that ended on Friday with progress but no conclusive deal. Discussions are scheduled to continue this week.
Key risk events:
- Markets price almost zero risk that the EU won’t grant the UK another extension when the bloc meets on Wednesday, the key uncertainty being how long
- How Mario Draghi reiterates downside risks at the ECB’s press conference on Wednesday will establish whether they’ve worsened or improved. Fine LTRO/rate details aren’t expected till June
- FOMC minutes (Wednesday) may hold clues on balance sheet reduction and any members leaning towards a cut
- Macroeconomic highlights: U.S. inflation and UK growth data on Wednesday; China’s trade and inflation readings on Thursday; Germany’s final CPI on Friday
Germany’s DAX stalls at 2019 highs
The index is navigating back to a multi-year rising trend smashed at year-end. Right now, exhausted momentum leaves price in poor shape to tackle sensitive levels:
- The critical 61.8% (12289) interval of the decline from January 2018’s record high to December’s bottom
- 12046: 10th September’s high that preceded volatility before a modest advance
- Current consolidation puts 11950 September lows at risk; before flimsy-looking 11903
- March 2018 swing lows, particularly near 11250, are visually the most solid
- Selling could still test the lower wall of a channel sketched since January, eyeing 11400s
Germany 30 CFD – daily [08/04/2019 14:59:54]
Source: City Index
From time to time, GAIN Capital Limited’s (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.
As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.