Stock Indices (CFD) – S&P 500 remains on support for extended rally
- US SP 500 – Trend bias: Up. Hit the first resistance/target at 2762 as expected. The on-going slide of 0.5% from yesterday, 13 Feb U.S. session high of 2762 to print a current intraday low of 2745 in today, 14 Feb Asian session has not damaged the minor uptrend in place in since 08Feb 2019 low of 2681. Maintain bullish bias with a tightened key short-term support now at 2732 (the lower boundary of the minor ascending channel from 08 Feb 2019 low + close to the former minor swing high areas of 06/07 Feb 2019 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent push up from 11 Feb 2019 minor U.S. session low to 13 Feb 2019 high) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 2775/80 (upper boundary of the minor ascending channel from 08 Feb 2019 low + 0.764 Fibonacci expansion from 26 Dec 2018 low) Thereafter, caution shall be warranted as the 17% rally from the 26 Dec 2019 low is overextended and risk of a 50% retracement increases reinforce by Elliot Wave/fractal analysis perspective. Failure to hold the 2732 support increases the risk of the 50% retracement for a potential slide towards the next near-term support at 2700/2686 (minor swing low area of 08 Feb 2019) in the first step.
- Japan 225 – Trend bias: Up. No change, maintain bullish bias with 21000/20900 remains as the key short-term support (the former range resistance from 21 Jan/05 Feb 2019) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 21420 (Fibonacci expansion cluster). However, failure to hold at 21000/20900 indicates a failure bullish breakout for a slide back towards the 20500/370 near-term support (the minor congestion area of 11 Feb 2019).
- Hong Kong 50 - Trend bias: Up. No change, maintain bullish bias with 28000 remains as the key short-term support (the minor ascending trendline from 14 Jan 2019 low + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 14 Jan 2019 low to 13 Feb 2019 high) for a potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 28660/770 (Fibonacci expansion cluster). Thereafter, caution shall be warranted as the 14% rally from 03 Jan 2019 low of 24886 has started to lose upside momentum as seen by the bearish divergence signal from the 4-hour Stochastic oscillator where the Index may shape a 50% retracement to reintegrate back into the complex range configuration in place since 26 Oct 2018. However, failure to hold at 28000 increases the risk of the 50% retracement for a potential slide towards the next near-term support at 27300/200 (the former swing high area of 03 Dec 2018) in the first step.
- Australia 200 - Trend bias: Push down within range. No change, maintain bearish bias below 6107 key short-term resistance for a further potential slide to test the 5955 near-term support (the minor ascending trendline from 02 Jan 2019 low + former range resistance from 17 Oct/12 Nov 2018 high). However, a break above 6107 sees a further squeeze up towards the 6150/200 key long-term pivotal resistance.
- Germany 30 – Trend bias: Push down within range. Its push up has managed to stall at the 11205 key short-term resistance (intraday high of 11221 seen in yesterday, 13 Feb European session before an hourly close below 11205) with a bearish divergence signal seen in the 4-hour Stochastic oscillator at its overbought region. No change, maintain bearish bias with 11205 remains as the key short-term resistance and a break below 11115 is likely to reinforce a minor mean reversion decline towards the near-term supports of 11045 follow by 10960. On the other hand, a clearance above 11205 invalidates the bearish scenario for a further squeeze up towards 11310 and even the lower limit of the key medium-term pivotal resistance zone at 11390.
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