Daily Stock Indices Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 14 Feb)

Extended rally remains intact for S&P 500, Nikkei 225 & Hang Seng.

Stock Indices (CFD) – S&P 500 remains on support for extended rally

  • US SP 500 – Trend bias: Up. Hit the first resistance/target at 2762 as expected. The on-going slide of 0.5% from yesterday, 13 Feb U.S. session high of 2762 to print a current intraday low of 2745 in today, 14 Feb Asian session has not damaged the minor uptrend in place in since 08Feb 2019 low of 2681. Maintain bullish bias with a tightened key short-term support now at 2732 (the lower boundary of the minor ascending channel from 08 Feb 2019 low + close to the former minor swing high areas of 06/07 Feb 2019 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent push up from 11 Feb 2019 minor U.S. session low to 13 Feb 2019 high) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 2775/80 (upper boundary of the minor ascending channel from 08 Feb 2019 low + 0.764 Fibonacci expansion from 26 Dec 2018 low) Thereafter, caution shall be warranted as the 17% rally from the 26 Dec 2019 low is overextended and risk of a 50% retracement increases reinforce by Elliot Wave/fractal analysis perspective. Failure to hold the 2732 support increases the risk of the 50% retracement for a potential slide towards the next near-term support at 2700/2686 (minor swing low area of 08 Feb 2019) in the first step.
  • Japan 225 – Trend bias: Up. No change, maintain bullish bias with 21000/20900 remains as the key short-term support (the former range resistance from 21 Jan/05 Feb 2019) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 21420 (Fibonacci expansion cluster). However, failure to hold at 21000/20900 indicates a failure bullish breakout for a slide back towards the 20500/370 near-term support (the minor congestion area of 11 Feb 2019).
  • Hong Kong 50 - Trend bias: Up. No change, maintain bullish bias with 28000 remains as the key short-term support (the minor ascending trendline from 14 Jan 2019 low + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 14 Jan 2019 low to 13 Feb 2019 high) for a potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 28660/770 (Fibonacci expansion cluster).  Thereafter, caution shall be warranted as the 14% rally from 03 Jan 2019 low of 24886 has started to lose upside momentum as seen by the bearish divergence signal from the 4-hour Stochastic oscillator where the Index may shape a 50% retracement to reintegrate back into the complex range configuration in place since 26 Oct 2018. However, failure to hold at 28000 increases the risk of the 50% retracement for a potential slide towards the next near-term support at 27300/200 (the former swing high area of 03 Dec 2018) in the first step.
  • Australia 200 - Trend bias: Push down within range. No change, maintain bearish bias below 6107 key short-term resistance for a further potential slide to test the 5955 near-term support (the minor ascending trendline from 02 Jan 2019 low + former range resistance from 17 Oct/12 Nov 2018 high). However, a break above 6107 sees a further squeeze up towards the 6150/200 key long-term pivotal resistance.
  • Germany 30 – Trend bias: Push down within range. Its push up has managed to stall at the 11205 key short-term resistance (intraday high of 11221 seen in yesterday, 13 Feb European session before an hourly close below 11205) with a bearish divergence signal seen in the 4-hour Stochastic oscillator at its overbought region. No change, maintain bearish bias with 11205 remains as the key short-term resistance and a break below 11115 is likely to reinforce a minor mean reversion decline towards the near-term supports of 11045 follow by 10960. On the other hand, a clearance above 11205 invalidates the bearish scenario for a further squeeze up towards 11310 and even the lower limit of the key medium-term pivotal resistance zone at 11390.                                           

Join our live webinars for the latest analysis and trading ideas. Register now

GAIN Capital UK Limited (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.