Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias/Key Levels (Wed 25 Apr)

Further short-term USD weakness. S&P 500 at risk of shaping another downleg to test its key medium-term support at 2585 while Gold remains weak within its medium-term range configuration.

FX – Short-term USD weakness remains intact

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Minor corrective decline extends.  Relief rebound from yesterday, 24 Apr low of 1.2182 is coming close to the 1.2265/2290 intermediate resistance zone as expected (38.2%/50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent on-going slide from 19 Apr high to 24 Apr 2018 low + pull-back resistance of the minor ascending trendline from 01 Mar 2018 low – refer to yesterday report). In addition, the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator is now back up at its overbought region. Maintain bearish bias below key short-term resistance at 1.2305 (former minor swing low areas of 12/13 Apr 2018 + close to 61.8% % Fibonacci retracement of the on-going slide from 19 Apr high to 24 Apr 2018 low) for another round of minor dowleg to test the 01 Mar 2018 low of 1.2150 and a break below it opens up scope for a further down move to target the key medium-term support of 1.2065/2030 (median line of a medium-term ascending channel in place since 03 Jan 2017 + former medium-term swing high areas of 29 Aug/08 Sep 2017 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going medium-term uptrend from 03 Jan 2017 low to 16 Feb 2018 high. A clearance above 1.2305 negates the bearish tone to see a squeeze back up towards its range top/resistance at 1.2400/1.2415.
  • GBP/USD Trend bias: Minor corrective decline extends. Relief rebound from yesterday, 24 Apr low of 1.3918 is coming close to the 1.4020/4090 intermediate resistance zone as expected (the former minor swing low areas of 30 Mar/06 Apr 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent on-going slide from 17 Apr high to 24 Apr 2018 low -  refer to yesterday report). In addition, the 4 hour Stochastic has inched back up to test its extreme overbought level of 95%. Maintain bearish bias below adjusted key short-term resistance at 1.4100 (former minor ascending trendline support from 01 Mar 2018 low) for another potential downleg to target the 1.3765/3590 key medium-term support zone (medium-term ascending channel support from 14 Mar 2017 low + swing low areas of 09 Feb/01 Mar 2018). However, a clearance above 1.4100 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze back up towards the 1.4300/4345 failure bullish breakout zone seen on 17 Apr 2018.
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: Breaking below the major bearish reversal “Ascending Wedge” support of 0.7600 from Jan 2016 low, risk of a primary downtrend. The expected minor rebound only printed a high of 0.7620 in yesterday, 24 Apr European session before it traded lower and breached below the 0.7600 level again in today, 25 Apr Asian session. The probability is now low to see a minor rebound towards the 7725/7750 intermediate resistance. Flip to a bearish bias in any bounce below 0.7620/7650 key short-term resistance (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 19 Apr high to 24 Apr 2018 low + former minor range support from 29 Mar/09 Apr 2018) for another potential downleg to target the next intermediate support at 0.7510 support (the medium-term swing low of 08 Dec 2017). On the other hand, a clearance above 0.7650 negates the bearish tone to revive the minor corrective rebound scenario towards 0.7725/7750 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going slide from 19 Apr high to 24 Apr 2018 low + former minor range support from 11/18 Apr 2018).
  • NZD/USD – Trend bias: Minor corrective decline extends. Broke below the medium-term ascending trendline support  from 17 Nov 2017 low. Flip to a bearish bias with 0.7130/7160 as the key short-term resistance (pull-back resistance of the former medium-term ascending trendline from 17 Nov 2017 low + former minor swing low of 21 Mar 2018) for a further potential push down to target the next intermediate support at 0.7030/0.7000 (former minor swing high area of 13 Dec 2017 + Fibonacci retracement /projection cluster). However, a break above 0.7160 negates the bearish tone for a mean reversion rebound towards the 0.7245/7280 resistance zone (former minor swing low area of 06 Apr 2018 + 50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 13 Apr high to today, 25 Apr Asian session current intraday low of 0.7093.
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias: Push up within medium-term range configuration in progress. Continued to inch high as expected an printed an intraday high of 109.20 in yesterday, 24 Apr early U.S. session before it pull-backed in line with weakness seen in the U.S. stock market. No change, maintain bullish bias with adjusted key short-term support now at 108.50 (close to yesterday, 24 Apr U.S. session low + minor ascending trendline from 21 Apr 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from last Fri, 20 Apr U.S. session low to yesterday, 24 Apr high of 109.20) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 109.50/65 (swing high area of 06.08 Feb 2018 + Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster). ). However, failure to hold at 108.50 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back to retest the 107.80/67 support (former medium-term swing high area of 21 Feb 2018 + former minor range resistance seen last week).

Stock Indices (CFD) –  Further potential weakness in S&P 500 to test its “Symmetrical Triangle” range support

  • US SP 500 – Trend bias:  Push down to test “Symmetrical Triangle” range support. Initial pushed up to print an intraday high of 2689 seen in yesterday, 24 Apr European session had fallen short of the short-term resistance/target of 2695/98 (refer to yesterday report). It broke below the 2670/58 short-term support and tumbled throughout yesterday, U.S. session to print a low of 2616. Yesterday’s price action has increased the odds of another downleg to retest the lower boundary of the “Symmetrical Triangle” range in place since 06 Feb 2018 low at 2590/85. Flip to a bearish bias in any bounce  2660 key short-term resistance (former minor swing low areas of  20/23 Apr 2018 + close to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of yesterday’s steep decline from its high of 2689 to 2616 low) for another push down towards the Symmetrical Triangle” range support at 2590/85 (medium-term support). On the other hand, a clearance above 2660 revives the short-term bulls for a recovery to at least retest 2689/98 zone (minor range resistance of 20 Apr 2018).
  • Japan 225 Trend bias: Sideways.  Managed to hold the 22090 adjusted key short-term support in today, 25 Apr  Asian session as it rebounded from yesterday, 24 Apr U.S. session low of 21964. But conviction is now low to see a push up to target t 22510/600 intermediate resistance zone due to another leg of weakness expected in the S&P 500. Prefer to turn neutral for today between 21960 & 22360 (the recent minor range resistance formed from 19 Apr high to yesterday, 24 Apr European high). Only a clear break above 22360 (an hourly close above it) reinstates the  bullish tone for an assault on the 22510/600 resistance in the first step.
  •  Hong Kong 50Trend bias: Sideways.  Whipsawed around the 30360 adjusted key short-term support in today, 25 Apr Asian session . Expect another round of choppy sideways movement due to the risk of another downleg in the S&P 500. Prefer to turn neutral for today between 30000/29950 (psychological level +  former swing low areas of 23 Mar/03 Apr 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 04 Apr 2018 low to 12 Apr 2018 high) and 30790 (yesterday, 24 Apr European session high). Only a break above 30790 (an hourly close above it) reinstates the  bullish tone for a push up towards the 31165 minor range resistance in first step.
  • Australia 200 – Cash stock market close for a public holiday
  • Germany 30Trend bias: Sideways. Initial push up fizzled out after a retest on its recent 18 Apr 2018 minor swing high of 12640 and pull-backed to challenge the 12500/460 key short-term support in line with weakness seen in the U.S. stock market. Prefer to turn neutral now between 12375 (yesterday, 24 Apr U.S. session low)and 12640. A break below 12375 (an hourly close below it) indicates a failure bullish breakout from the minor “Double Bottom” configuration for a further down move to test the 12090 key medium-term support (ascending trendline from 26 Mar 2018 low + close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 26 Mar low to yesterday, 24 Apr high of 12649).

Commodities – Further potential weakness in Gold within medium-term range configuration

  • WTI Crude (Jun 2018) - Trend bias: Sideways. No change, maintain neutrality stance between between 69.90 and 67.15. A break below 67.15 opens up scope for a deeper pull-back to retest the next intermediate support of 66.50/10 (former medium-term range resistance from 25 Jan/23 Mar 2018).
  • Gold - Trend bias: Push down within sideways range. Yesterday’s rebound has managed to stall below the 1335 key short-term resistance as per highlighted in yesterday report (printed a high of 1333 in yesterday, 24 Apr U.S. session). No change, maintain bearish bias below  1335 key short-term resistance (former swing low area of 13 Apr 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going slide from 18 Apr 2018 high to 23 Apr 2018 low of 1322) for a further potential slide to target the medium-term range support of 1310/1303 in place since 08 Feb 2018 low. On the other hand, a clearance above 1335 negates the short-term bearish tone for a squeeze back up to retest 1347/50 intermediate resistance (minor descending trendline from 11 Apr 2018 high).

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform




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