Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias/Key Levels (Wed 18 Apr)

Mix bag in FX, watch the 107.80 resistance on USD/JPY. S&P 500 further potential push up towards 2740/50 risk zone before another potential round of choppy setback materialises.

FX –  Mix bag, watch 107.80 resistance on USD/JPY while EUR & GBP remains on support against the USD

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Push up towards “triangle range” resistance. Pull-backed from yesterday, 17 Apr European session high of 1.2414 and tested the predefined key short-term support at 1.2345 (former minor swing high areas of 13/14 Apr 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 06 Apr 2018 low) as it printed a low of 1.2336 before an hourly close back at the 1.2345 key short-term support in the U.S. session. No change, tolerate the excess and maintain bullish bias with 1.2345/2336 (excess) remains as the key short-term support for a potential push up to target the upper boundary/resistance of the “triangle range” at  1.2420/2440 (also a Fibonacci cluster). On the other hand, failure to hold at 1.2345/2336  opens up scope for a deeper slide back towards the intermediate support of 1.2280/2265 (the former minor swing high areas of 05/07 Apr 2018).
  • GBP/USD – Trend bias: Medium-term uptrend remains intact. Pull-backed from yesterday, 17 Apr European session high of 1.4376 to print an intraday low of 1.4282 at the end of the U.S. session. Interestingly, yesterday’s slide has led to pair to rest just above the predefined key short-term support of 1.4260 as per highlighted in yesterday’s report.  In addition, the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has started to inch up from its oversold region which suggests that yesterday’s downside momentum of the slide has started to abate. No change, maintain bullish bias above the 1.4280/4260 key short-term support (minor ascending channel support from 05 Apr 2016 low + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 05 Apr low to 17 Apr 2018 low) for another round of potential upleg to target  1.4400 intermediate resistance (upper boundary of the minor ascending channel from 05 Apr 2016 low + 1.00 Fibonacci projection of the up move from 05 Apr low to 11 Apr 2018 high projected from 12 Apr 2018 low). However, a break below 1.4280/4260 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back towards the next support at 1.4145/4090 (former minor swing high areas of 03/04 Apr 2018 + medium-term ascending channel support from  01 Mar 2018 low).
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: Up. Traded sideways after a test on the 0.7790 upside trigger level (refer to yesterday’s report). No change, maintain bullish bias above  0.7740 key short-term support and a break above 0.7790 (an hourly close above it) is required to reinforce a potential push up to target 0.7890 next (medium-term swing high areas of 26 Feb/14 Mar 2018). On the flipside, failure to hold at 0.7740 triggers another round of corrective pull-back towards the 0.7720/0.7700 intermediate support in the first step (the former minor swing high areas of 04/05 Apr 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going minor uptrend from 09 Apr 2018 low to yesterday, 11 Apr high of 0.7773).
  • NZD/USD – Trend bias: Push up within sideways range.  Pull-backed in yesterday, 17 Apr U.S. session to test the 0.7340/7330 key short-term support before it traded sideways. In addition, the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has started to shape a bullish divergence signal at its oversold region which indicates a slowdown in yesterday’s downside momentum of price action. No change, maintain bullish bias with 0.7330 remains as the key short-term support and added 0.7360 as the upside trigger level (minor descending trendline from 13 Apr 2018 high). An hourly close above 0.7360 is required to reinforce a potential push up to target  the 0.7430 medium-term range resistance in place since 20 Sep 2017. However, failure to hold at 0.7330 (excess) negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back towards the next intermediate support at 0.7280/7260 (the minor ascending channel support from 21 Mar 2018 low).
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias: Push up within range. The pair staged an initial slide to test the lower limit of the neutrality range at 106.90 (refer to yesterday report) before it staged a strong rebound and ended the U.S. session with close of 107.26 above Mon, 16 Apr high of 107.21.  Flip back to a bullish bias in any dips with 106.90 as the key short-term support (former minor swing high area of 11 Apr 2018 high + minor ascending channel support from 25 Mar 2018 low) for a potential push up to retest 107.80 (former medium-term swing low area of 08 Sep 2017 that was tested & retreated on last Fri, 13 Apr). An hourly close above 107.80 reinforces a further potential up move to target the next intermediate resistance at 108.45 (former medium-term swing low area of 26 Jan 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the multi-month decline from 06 Nov 2017 high to 26 Mar 2018 low).  However, a break below 106.90 triggers a slide towards 105.85/60  support (minor swing low area of 02/04 Apr 2018 + pull-back support of the former medium-term “Descending Wedge” resistance from 21 Feb 2018 high).

Stock Indices (CFD) – S&P 500 is approaching a risk zone of 2740/50 where another round of choppy setback may materialise

  • US SP 500 – Trend bias: Push up towards “Symmetrical Triangle” resistance. Rallied as expected and hit the short-term resistance/target of 2704/2707 in yesterday, 17 Apr U.S. session.  Yesterday’s rally has been led by the high beta  S&P Technology & Consumer Discretionary sectors where their respective sector ETFs (XLK & XLY) rose by 1.86% that outperformed the S&P 500 that recorded an increase of 1.07% from Mon, 16 Apr.  Maintain bullish bias with an adjusted key short-term support now at 2700 (minor ascending trendline from 13 Apr 2018, U.S. session low to yesterday, 17 Apr U.S. session high of 2713) for a further potential push up to target the medium-term resistance/risk zone of 2740/50 (upper boundary of “Symmetrical Triangle” in place since its all-time high of 27 Jan 2018 + Fibonacci cluster) before another round of potential choppy setback materialises. On the other hand, a break below 2700 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back towards the 2680/70 support (the former minor swing high areas of 05/13 Apr 2018 + minor ascending channel support from  04 Apr 2018 low).
  • Japan 225 Trend bias: Pushed up within sideways range. Rallied and hit the 22100 short-term resistance/target as expected in today, 18 Apr early Asian session. Maintain bullish bias in any dips above adjusted key short-term support now at 21900 (former minor range resistance from 05 Apr/16 Apr 2018) for a further potential push up to target  the next intermediate resistance at 22510/600 (upper boundary of the minor ascending channel in place since 26 Mar 2018 low + medium-term swing high area of 27 Feb 2018).
  • Hong Kong 50 -Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. Yesterday, 17 Apr 1.3% rally to print a high of 30420 seen in the U.S. session was wiped out in today, 18 Apr Asian opening session as the fear of further intervention by the Hong Kong central bank (HKMA) to buy HKD that can trigger a  liquidity tightening condition (negative for the HK stock market) as the USDHKD continues to probe the upper limit of the policy band at 7.85. Interestingly, the HSI has retested and held at the 30000/29950 key short-term support (psychological level +  former swing low areas of 23 Mar/03 Apr 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 04 Apr 2018 low to 12 Apr 2018 high). Therefore as long as 3000/29950 support holds, the Index may see a push up to retest its minor range resistance of 30500/650 (yesterday, 17 Apr high + former minor swing low area of 12 Apr 2018) in the first step. However, failure to hold at 30000/29950 negates the bullish tone to see a further slide all the way back to 29200/29070 (the swing low areas of 09 Feb/04 Apr 2018).
  • Australia 200 – Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. No change, maintain bullish bias above 5830 adjusted key short-term support (16 Apr 2018 low + minor ascending trendline from 04 Apr 2018 low) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 5910 (former minor range support from 07/20 Mar 2018). However, a break below 5830 negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest 5800 (10/12 Apr 2018 swing low areas).  
  • Germany 30Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. Pushed up as expected. No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips with adjusted key short-term support now at 12500 (the pull-back support of the former neckline resistance of a  minor “Double Bottom” configuration from 07 Feb 2018 high) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 12750/865 (former range support from 15 Nov 2017/02 Jan 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from its current all-time high printed on 23 Jan 2018 to 06 Feb 2018 low). On the other hand, a break below 12500 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back towards the next intermediate support at 12400 (former minor swing high areas of 16 Mar/10 Apr 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 26 Mar 2018 low to yesterday, 17 Apr high of 12620).

Commodities – 1348/53 remains the key short-term resistance on Gold

  • WTI Crude (May 2018) – Trend bias: Up. Maintain bullish bias above 66.10/65.57 (excess) key short-term support (the former range resistance in place since 25 Jan 2018 high) for a further potential up move to target the intermediate resistance of 69.10/90 in the first step (50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous primary down trend from Aug 2013 high to Feb 2016 low + former major range support from Dec 2009/May 2010), However, a break below 65.57 sees another round of choppy decline towards the intermediate support of 63.90/80 (former minor swing high areas of 04/05 Apr 2018) within the multi-month range configuration since 25 Jan 2018.
  • Gold - Trend bias: Push down within range configuration. No change, maintain bearish bias below 1348/53 (excess) key short resistance (former minor ascending trendline support from 06 Apr 2018 low + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide from the major range resistance of 1365/78 to 13 Apr 2018 low) for a further potential push down to retest 1335 (minor swing low area of 13 Apr 2018). A break below 1335 opens up scope for a further potential slide towards the 1322/1320 minor swing low area of 06 Apr  2018. On the other hand, a break above 1348/53 shall see a squeeze back up again to retest the 1365/78 major range resistance in place since Jul 2016.

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform


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