Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias Key/Levels (Wed 17 Jan)

FX – Mix bag with recent USD weakness coming close to inflection zone for a minor corrective rebound

  • EUR/USD – Tested the predefined 1.2200  key short-term support (printed a low of 1.2195 in yesterday, 16 Jan U.S. session but no hourly close below 1.2200)  before it staged the expected upleg. Right now, it is coming close to the near-term resistance/target zone of 1.2370/80. Mix elements at this juncture where Elliot Wave/fractal analysis suggest the potential end of the minor degree bullish impulsive wave iii in place since 11 Jan 2018 low where a corrective pull-back may occur soon.  Prefer to turn neutral now between 1.2380 & 1.2200. An hourly close below 1.2200 should trigger a potential minor corrective decline towards the next supports at 1.2125 follow by 1. 1.2090/2075 zone (former swing highs area of Sep 2017/04 Jan 2018.
  • GBP/USD – Pushed up as expected. Tightened key short-term support now at 1.3740 (yesterday, 16 Jan European session low) for the potential residual push up to target the next resistance at 1.3920/3960 (upper boundary of medium-term ascending channel from 16 Jan 2017 low + Fibonacci projection cluster). On the other hand, a break below 1.3740 is likely to trigger the minor corrective decline towards 1.3600 in the first step (former minor swing high area of 03 Jan 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the o-going up move from 11 Jan 2018 low).
  • AUD/USD – Pushed up as expected right at the 0.7940 predefined tightened key short-terms support after a test on it in yesterday, 16 Jan U.S. session. No change, maintain bullish bias above 0.7940 for a potential residual push up towards 0.8040/8060 resistance( Fibonacci projection cluster + medium-term swing high areas of 27 Jul/20 Sep 2017) before risk of minor corrective decline.
  • NZD/USD – Tested the 0.7260 tightened short-term support and traded sideways in yesterday, 16 Jan U.S. session. Mix elements at this juncture with the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has flashed a bearish divergence signal at its overbought region. Prefer to turn neutral now between 0.7260 & 0.7290.  A break below 0.7260 should kick start a minor corrective pull-back towards 0.7200 support in the first step (lower boundary of medium-term ascending channel from 08 Dec 2017 low).
  • USD/JPYDropped as expected and almost hit the 110.15 support/target (lower boundary of a medium-term descending channel from 06 Nov 2017 high + Fibonacci cluster) as it printed a current intraday low of 110.19 in today, 17 Jan Asian session. In addition, the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has flashed a bullish divergence signal which indicates a slow-down in the recent downside momentum of price action. Turn bullish above 110.00 key short-term support for a potential corrective rebound scenario towards the 111.70/80 resistance (minor swing high areas of 11/12 Jan 2018 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the current decline from 08 Jan 2018 high to today’s current intraday low). On the other hand, failure to hold above 110.00 should open up scope for an extension drop towards the next support at  108.15/108.00 (medium-term swing low areas of 17 Apr/29 Aug 2017).

Stock Indices (CFD) – Still holding above supports

  • US SP 500 –  Challenged the above 2780 tightened key short-term support as it printed an intraday low of  2768 before it managed to trade back at 2780 at the close of yesterday, 16 Jan U.S. session. Tolerate the excess and maintain bullish bias above 2780/68 key short-term support for another round of potential upleg towards the first medium-term resistance at 2820 (see latest weekly technical outlook). On the other hand, a break below 2780 should negate the bullish tone to trigger a corrective pull-back towards the next support at 2756 (pull-back support of former ascending channel upper boundary bullish breakout from 15 Nov 2017 low + former minor swing high area of 10 Jan 2018).
  • Japan 225 – Yesterday’s slide seen in the U.S. session had managed to hold above the 23560 tightened key short-term support (printed a low of 23657). No change, maintain bullish bias above 23560 support for a further potential push up  towards next resistance at 24200 ( Fibonacci projection cluster + exit potential of the recent triangle range bullish breakout). On the other hand, a break below 23560 should negate the bullish tone to trigger a corrective pull-back towards the key medium-term support at 23325 (see weekly technical outlook).
  • Hong Kong 50 – Pushed up and hit the 31960 resistance as expected before it dipped in yesterday, 16 Jan U.S. session). No change, maintain bullish bias above 31300 key short-term support for another round of potential upleg to target the next near-term resistance at 32175 (2.618 Fibonacci projection of the up move from 07 Dec 2017 low to 14 Dec 2017 high projected from 15 Dec 2017 low). On the other hand failure to hold above 31300 shall invalidate the direct rise scenario for a corrective pull-back towards the 30990 support (lower boundary of the minor ascending channel from 15 Dec 2017 low).
  • Australia 200 – Pushed down and whipsawed around the 6026 key medium-term support. Waiting for a daily close below 6026 to invalidate medium-term bullish scenario. Interestingly, the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has flashed a bullish divergence signal at its oversold region which indicates a slow-down in the recent downside momentum of price action. In short-term, prefer to turn neutral first between 5996 (current intraday low) & 6042 (former minor swing low of 16 Jan 2018). An hourly close above 6042 is likely to revive the bullish tone for a potential push up towards 6109 (the minor swing high of 15 Jan 2018)
  • Germany 30 – Pushed up but failed to break above the 13350 upside trigger level. No change, maintain neutrality stance between 13150 (11 Jan 2018 low) & 13350. Only a break above 13350 will increase the odds of another potential upleg to target the 13530/560 near-term resistance (07 Nov 2017 swing high area) in the first step.

Commodities – Risk of minor corrective decline in WTI remains intact

  • Gold – No change, Maintain bullish bias above key short-term support at 1320 (last Fri, 12 Jan swing low + medium-term ascending channel from 12 Dec 2017 low) for a further potential push up towards 1357 (swing high of 08 Sep 2017) before the significant resistance of 1375/1378 (major upside trigger level for a potential multi-month up move). On the other hand, failure to hold above 1320 should negate the bullish tone to see a slide to retest 1308/1305 support next (minor swing low area of 09/10 Jan 2018).
  • WTI Crude (Feb 2018) -  Traded sideways below the 65.20 significant medium-term resistance. Risk of a minor corrective decline remains intact, maintain neutrality stance between 65.20 & 63.00. A break below 63.00 may trigger a corrective pull-back towards the 60.50/59.50 support zone (50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally from 14 Dec 2017 low to 15 Jan 2018, U.S. session high) 

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform


  

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