Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias/Key Levels (Wed 04 Apr)
Kelvin Wong April 4, 2018 4:49 AM
Further potential USD weakness except against JPY while S&P 500 managed to trade back above 2585 key medium-term support. Gold at risk of a minor push down within its range configuration.
FX – Further potential USD weakness except in JPY
- EUR/USD – Trend bias: Potential last push down within sideways range. The pair has continues its slow descend as expected and printed a new minor low of 1.2254 in yesterday, 03 Apr U.S. session. Adjusted the key short-term resistance now to 1.2290 (former minor swing low areas of 29 Mar/02 Apr 2018) for a potential last push down to target the lower boundary/support of the “triangle range” at 1.2230. On the other hand, a clearance above 1.2336 shall see a squeeze up to retest 1.2420/2440 (the upper boundary/resistance of the “triangle range” in place since 16 Feb 2018 high).
- GBP/USD - Trend bias: Up. No change as the pair continues to hold above the 1.4000 key short-term support (minor ascending channel support from 01 Mar 2018 low + Fibonacci cluster. Right now, a break above 1.4090 (hourly close above it) is likely to reinforce a potential up move to retest 1.4200/4240 (26 Mar 2018 minor swing high) in the first step. However, failure to hold above 1.4000 negates recovery for a deeper slide towards the next intermediate support at 1.3920 (former congestion zone of 06/16 Mar 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent up move from 01 Mar low to 26 Mar 2018 high).
- AUD/USD – Trend bias: Push up within descending range in progress. Adjusted key short-term support now to 0.7667 (yesterday, 03 Apr U.S. session low) for a potential push up to retest 0.7755/7780 (22 Mar 2018 minor swing high) in the first step & a break above 0.7780 is likely to open up scope for a further up move to target 0.7810/7840 next (medium-term descending resistance from 27 Jan 2018 high + Fibonacci retracement cluster). On the flipside, a break below 0.7667 invalidates the push up scenario for a further slide towards the lower boundary of a major “Ascending Wedge” range configuration in place since Jan 2016 low now acting as a support at 0.7600.
- NZD/USD - Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. Broke above the 0.7250 upper limit of the short-term neutrality zone which validated a potential push up scenario. Key short-term support at 0.7250 (the former minor range resistance that was retested in yesterday, 03 Apr U.S. session after its prior bullish breakout) for a further potential push up to 0.7345 intermediate resistance (minor swing high areas of 26 Feb/14 Mar 2018) in the first step. On the flipside, a reintegration below 0.7250 represents a failure bullish breakout for a slide back to retest the 0.7190 range support in place since 08 Feb 2018).
- USD/JPY - Trend bias: Up. The pair broke above the 106.17 upper limit of the short-term neutrality zone in yesterday, 03 Apr European session which validated the revival of the bullish tone. Flip back to a bullish bias with key short-term support now at 106.10 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent minor up move from 03 Apr 2018 low to yesterday, 03 Apr U.S. session high of 106.66 + former minor swing low of 30 Mar 2018) for a further potential up move to target the next intermediate resistance at 107.15/20 (minor swing high of 13 Mar 2018 + 0.618 Fibonacci projection of the recent minor rally from 26 Mar low to 29 Mar 2018 high projected from 03 Apr 2018 low). On the other hand, a break back below 106.10 shall see another round of choppy decline to retest 105.65 (the pull-back support of the former “Descending Wedge” resistance from 21 Feb 2018 high + 02 Apr 2018 low).
Stock Indices (CFD) – S&P 500 back above 2585 key medium-term support
- US SP 500 – Trend bias: Push up within “Triangle range”. The Index had managed to “fight back” above the 2585 key medium-term support ((pull-back support of the former long-term ascending channel resistance from Mar 2009 + ascending channel support from 11 Feb 2016 low) after it printed an intraday low of 2553 on 02 Apr U.S. session and broke above the 2602 upper limit of the short-term neutrality zone (refer to yesterday, 03 Apr report). Flip back to a bullish bias above 2585 support (yesterday, 03 Apr U.S session minor swing low area) for a further potential push up to test the next intermediate resistance at 2660 (descending trendline from 12 Mar 2018 + 30 Mar 2018 minor swing high). However, a break below 2585 shall negate the short-term bullish tone for another choppy decline to retest the 2553 low of 02 Apr.
- Japan 225 – Trend bias: Unclear. Maintain neutrality stance between 21600 (upper boundary of the “Descending Wedge” range configuration in place since 27 Feb 2018 high) & 20930. Only a clearance above 21600 (an hourly close above it) is likely to open up scope for a further potential push up to test the next intermediate resistance at 22050 (minor swing high area of 13 Mar 2018).
- Hong Kong 50 – Trend bias: Unclear. Maintain neutrality stance between 30360 & 29800. Only a break above 30360 shall trigger a potential push up to retest the 30870/970 minor range top in place since 27 Mar 2018. On the flipside, failure to hold at 29800 is likely to see a further slide towards the next support at 29070 (09 Feb 2018 major swing low area).
- Australia 200 – Trend bias: Unclear. Maintain neutrality stance between 5709 & 5770. A clearance above 5770 shall open up a potential push up to target the 5850/80 intermediate resistance (former minor swing low of 05 Mar 2018).
- Germany 30 – Trend bias: Unclear. Maintain neutrality stance between 11900/800 (key medium-term support) & 12130 (minor swing high area of 29 Mar 2018). Only a break above 12130 is likely to trigger a push up to test 12500 (intermediate range resistance from 07 Feb 2018 high).
Commodities – Risk of a further potential down within range for Gold
- Gold - Trend bias: Push down within sideways range. Drifted down from 02 Apr U.S session high of 1345 & the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior minor decline from 27 Mar high to 29 Mar 2018 low). Key short-term resistance will be at 1345 for a further potential push down to retest 1310/1305 range support in place since 08 Feb 2018 low. However, a break above 1345 shall see a squeeze up to test the 1365/78 major range resistance since Jul 2016.
- WTI Crude (May 2018) – Trend bias: Further push down within range configuration. No change, maintain bearish bias below 63.86 key short-term resistance for a further potential push down to to test the next intermediate support at 62.30/62.00 (medium-term ascending channel support from 09 Feb 2018 low + former minor range resistance of 12/17 Mar 2018). On the flipside, a clearance above 63.86 negates the short-term bearish tone for a push back up to retest the range resistance of 66.40/66 in place since 25 Jan 2018
*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform
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