Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias/Key Levels (Tues 24 Apr)

Short-term USD strength resurfaces but a minor bounce cannot be rule out for EUR, GBP & AUD. S&P 500 underpeformed against the rest of the major stock indices but still holding the 2670 key short-term support.Further weakness in Gold within medium-term range configuration.

FX –  Short-term USD strength resurfaces

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Minor corrective decline extends but cannot rule of a relief bounce first. Broke below the 1.2245 key short-term support in yesterday, 23 Apr European session that invalidated the rebound scenario. Printed a current intraday low of 1.2184 in today, 24 Apr early Asian session. The current intraday low 1.2184 coincides closely with the 01 Mar 2018 minor swing low of 1.2350; the lowest point of the on-going 2 months of choppy range configuration in place since 16 Feb 2018 high). The hourly RSI oscillator has started to flash a bullish divergence signal at its oversold region which suggests a slowdown in the recent downside momentum of price action which indicates the risk of a relief bounce towards the 1.2265/2290 zone (38.2%/50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent on-going slide from 19 Apr high to 24 Apr 2018 low + pull-back resistance of the minor ascending trendline from 01 Mar 2018 low)) at this juncture. Flip to a bearish bias to fade any bounces below key short-term resistance at  1.2305 (former minor swing low areas of 12/13 Apr 2018 + close to 61.8% % Fibonacci retracement of the recent on-going slide from 19 Apr high to 24 Apr 2018 low) for another round of minor dowleg to test the 01 Mar 2018 low of 1.2150 and a break below it opens up scope for a further down move to target the key medium-term support of 1.2065/2030 (median line of a medium-term ascending channel in place since 03 Jan 2017 + former medium-term swing high areas of 29 Aug/08 Sep 2017 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going medium-term uptrend from 03 Jan 2017 low to 16 Feb 2018 high. A push back above 1.2305 negates the bearish tone to see squeeze back up towards its range top/resistance at 1.2400/1.2415.
  • GBP/USD Trend bias: Minor corrective decline extends but cannot rule of a relief bounce first. Broke below the 1.3990/3960 key short-term support in yesterday, 23 Apr U.S. session that invalidated the rebound scenario. The current slide of the pair is now resting right above a minor  support of 1.3900 (psychological + former minor swing high of 07 Mar/minor swing low of 16 Mar 2018) with a bullish divergence signal that has continued to be flash out in the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator at its oversold region. These observations indicates the risk of a relief rebound towards the 1.4020/4090 zone (the former minor swing low areas of 30 Mar/06 Apr 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent on-going slide from 17 Apr high to 24 Apr 2018 low). Flip to a bearish bias to fade any bounces below key short-term resistance at  1.4150 (former minor ascending trendline support from 01 Mar 2018 low + + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent on-going slide from 17 Apr high to 24 Apr 2018 low) for another potential downleg to target the 1.3765/3590 key medium-term support zone (medium-term ascending channel support from 14 Mar 2017 low + swing low areas of 09 Feb/01 Mar 2018).
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: Corrective rebound to retrace last week steep decline. Drifted down further to test the lower limit of the major support zone at 0.7600 (long-term “Ascending Wedge” support from Jan 2016 low). It printed a current intraday low of 0.7579 in today’s 24 Apr Asian session before it rebounded back to 0.7600 coupled with a bullish divergence signal seen in the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator at its oversold region that indicates a slowdown in downside momentum. Thus, a corrective rebound still cannot be rule out at this juncture. Maintain bullish bias with 0.7600/7579 as key support with 0.7650 as the upside trigger level to reinforce a potential relief rebound towards the 0.7725/7750 intermediate resistance (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going slide from 19 Apr high to 24 Apr 2018 low + former minor range support from 11/18 Apr 2018). A clear break below 0.7600/7579 opens up scope for an extension of the decline to target 0.7510 support next in the first step (the medium-term swing low of 08 Dec 2017).
  • NZD/USD – Trend bias: Unclear. Broke below 0.7190/0.7170 support yesterday, 23 Apr European session that invalidated the rebound scenario. The pair continued to tumble to print a current intraday low of 0.7115 in today, 24 Apr Asian session and it is now resting at medium-term trendline support from 17 Nov 2018 low + Fibonacci projection/retracement cluster) coupled with bullish divergence signal seen in the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator at its oversold region. Prefer to turn neutral first between 0.7100 and 0.7180 (former range support from 08 Feb 2018 low + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going slide from 13 Apr high to 24 Apr 2018 low). A break below 0.7100 sees an extension of the slide towards the next intermediate support at 0.7020/6970 (former range resistance of 08/27 Nov 2017 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 17 Nov 2017 low to 15 Feb 2018 high).
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias: Push up within range configuration in progress. Pushed up as expected and hit the resistance/target of 108.45.  Maintain bullish bias in any dips above adjusted key short-term support now at 107.80/67 (former medium-term swing high area of 21 Feb 2018 + former minor range resistance seen last week) for another round of potential upleg to target 109.50/65 resistance next (swing high area of 06.08 Feb 2018 + Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster). However, failure to hold at 107.80/67 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back towards the  next intermediate support at 106.95/65 zone (the congest area of 28 Mar/10 Apr 2018 + minor swing low area of 11 Apr 2018).

Stock Indices (CFD) – S&P 500 underperformed but still holding the 2670 key short-term suport

  • US SP 500 – Trend bias:  Push up within “Symmetrical Triangle” range. Traded sideways and retested the 2670/59 key short-term support in yesterday, 24 Apr mid-U.S. session before it rebounded to close the U.S. session at 2670. which was caused by weakness in the high beta Technology sector (underperformed the S&P 500 where its respective sector ETF, XLK declined by 0.36% versus a negligible  gain of 0.01% seen in the S&P 500. Interestingly, the tech heavy benchmark Nasdaq 100 futures Index has retested its parallel key short-term support at 6640/6586 and ended yesterday, 24 Apr U.S with a spinning top candlestick (small body) that indicates indecisiveness  by the bears at this juncture. Maintain bullish bias with 2670/58 remains as key short-term support for a potential push up to target the intermediate resistance of 2695/98 in the first step (minor range resistance of 20 Apr 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the last week slide  from 18 Apr high to 24 Apr 2018 low of 2658).  On the other hand, failure to hold at 2670/59 invalidates the rebound scenario for an extension of the down move towards the 2585 key medium-term support (the lower boundary of the “Symmetrical Triangle” range configuration in place since 06 Feb 2018 low.
  •  Japan 225 Trend bias: Push up within sideways range.  Broke above the 22200 upside trigger level (former minor descending trendline from 19 Apr 2018 high) as per highlighted in yesterday’s report. Maintain bullish bias with an adjusted key short-term support now at 22090 (today, 24 Apr current Asia session low + pull-back support of the former minor descending trendline from 19 Apr 2018 high) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 22510/600 (medium-term swing high area of 27 Feb 2018). On the flipside, failure to hold at 22090 sees a deeper pull-back to retest the 21900 support (former minor range resistance from 05 Apr/16 Apr 2018).
  • Hong Kong 50Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. Broke above the 30530 minor descending trendline from 12 Apr 2018 high. Flip back to a bullish bias in any dips with 30360 as key short-term support (today, 24 Apr Asian session opening level + close to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the current up move from 23 Apr 2018 low to current intraday high of 30687) for a further potential push up to target the 31165 range resistance in place since 12 Apr 2018. However, a break below 30360 invalidates the push scenario to see another round of choppy decline to retest the 30000/29950 range support (psychological level +  former swing low areas of 23 Mar/03 Apr 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 04 Apr 2018 low to 12 Apr 2018 high).
  • Australia 200 – Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. Broke above the 5910 upper limit of the short-term neutrality zone.  Flip back to a bullish bias in any dips above key short-term support now at 5883 (yesterday, 23 Apr U.S. session low + pull-back support of a former minor descending trendline from 27 Feb 2018 high) for a  further potential push up to target 5960 (minor swing high of 21/22 Mar 2018) follow by 5995 next (minor swing high area of 19 Mar 2018 + 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 27 Feb 2018 high to 04 Apr 2018 low. On the other hand, failure to hold at 5883 indicates a failure bullish breakout for a slide back to test the 5850/40 support (former range resistance that has been taken out & retested on 21 Apr 2018).
  • Germany 30Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. Maintain bullish bias in any dips with 12500/460 (excess) remains as the key short-term support (the pull-back support of the former neckline resistance of a  minor “Double Bottom” configuration from 07 Feb 2018 high) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 12750/865 (former range support from 15 Nov 2017/02 Jan 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from its current all-time high printed on 23 Jan 2018 to 06 Feb 2018 low). On the other hand, a break below 12500 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back towards the next intermediate support at 12260 (minor swing low areas of 11/12 Apr 2018).

Commodities – Further potential weakness in Gold within medium-term range configuration

  • WTI Crude (Jun 2018) - Trend bias: Sideways. Another choppy session where it broke below last Fri, 20 Apr low of 67.50 (printed an intraday low of 67.15 before it staged a recovery back above 67.50 in yesterday, 23 Apr U.S. session. Elements remain mix. Prefer to maintain neutrality stance between 69.90 and 67.15. A break below 67.15 opens up scope for a deeper pull-back to retest the next intermediate support of 66.50/10 (former medium-term range resistance from 25 Jan/23 Mar 2018).
  • Gold - Trend bias: Push down within sideways range. Broke below 1330 support that invalidated the minor corrective rebound scenario. Flip to a bearish bias in any bounce below 1335 key short-term resistance (former swing low area of 13 Apr 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going slide from 18 Apr 2018 high to 23 Apr 2018 low of 1322) for a further potential slide to target the medium-term range support of 1310/1303 in place since 08 Feb 2018 low. On the other hand, a clearance above 1335 negates the short-term bearish tone for a squeeze back up to retest 1347/50 intermediate resistance (minor descending trendline from 11 Apr 2018 high).

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform




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