Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend/Bias Key Levels (Tues 20 Feb)

USD still at risk of shaping another downleg while major stock indices are atill holding above their respective short-term supports. Watch 1336 support on Gold.

FX – USD still remain below resistances

  • EUR/USD – Attempted to break below the 1.2385 key short-term support (refer to previous report) in yesterday, 19 Feb lower liquidity U.S. session (U.S. was closed for a public holiday). Printed  a low of 1.2369 before it traded back up above 1.2385 as the U.S. session unfolded yesterday. In addition, yesterday’s decline managed to stall at the minor ascending trendline from 10 Feb 2018 low coupled with a bullish divergence signal seen in the short-term hourly RSI oscillator at its oversold region. Tolerate the excess and maintain bullish bias above 1.2385/2369 support with 1.2435 as the upside trigger level to reinforce another potential upleg to target the next near-term resistance at 1.2575 (1.618 Fibonacci projection of the up move from 10 Feb 2018 low to 14 Feb 2018 minor swing high projected from yesterday’s pull-back low of 1.2276). However, a break below 1.2369 should invalidated the up move  for a slide to retest 14 Feb 2018 low of 1.2276 in the first step.
  • GBP/USD –No change, maintain bullish bias above the tightened key short-term support now at 1.3915 (former minor swing high of 13 Feb 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent up move from 10 Feb low to 16 Feb 2018 high) for a further potential push up to target the 1.4270/4310 range resistance in place since 25 Jan 2018 in the first step. On the flipside, failure to hold above 1.3915 should invalidate the further upleg scenario for a slide back to retest 14 Feb 2018 low of 1.3800.
  • AUD/USD – Tested and managed to hold above the 0.7890 key short-term support. No change, maintain bullish bias above 0.7890 support with 0.7940 as upside trigger (minor range resistance since 17 Feb 2018) to reinforce another potential upleg to target  the next near-term resistance at 0.8045 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 27 Jan high to 09 Feb 2018 low). On the other hand, a break below 0.7890 should invalidate the bullish scenario for a slide back to retest 14 Feb 20187 low of 0.7773.
  • NZD/USD – Broke below the tightened key short-term support at 0.7370 and drifted down towards the .7330 support (former minor swing high area of 14 Feb 2018 + pull-back support of the former descending trendline from 25 Jan 2018 high. Overall, the minor short-term uptrend in place since 08 Feb 2018 low is still intact as the pair remains above an ascending trendline from 08 Feb 2018 low. Interestingly, yesterday’s slide in price action has led the short-term hourly Stochastic oscillator to flash an impending bullish divergence signal at its oversold region (a sign of slowdown in downside momentum). Thus, maintain bullish bias above 0.7330 support with 0.7382 as the upside trigger (minor descending trendline from 16 Feb 2018 high) to reinforce  a further potential push up to target the major resistance of 0.7485/7500 (multi-month range top in place since Sep 2016 + 1.618 Fibonacci projection of the  08 Feb 2018 low to 14 Feb 2018 minor high projected from yesterday low of 0.7240). On the flipside, failure to hold above 0.7330 should invalidate the recovery scenario for a deeper slide to retest the 14 Feb 2018 low of 0.7240 in first step.
  • USD/JPY – Inched higher from yesterday, 19 Feb Asian session and it is now testing the 106.50/85 key short-term resistance (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 08 Feb 2018 high to last Fri, 16 Feb low of 105.55). Mix elements now, prefer to turn neutral first between 106.85 & 106.25 (minor ascending trendline from 16 Feb 2018 low). A break above 106.85 opens up scope for a mean reversion rebound to target the 107.40/60 resistance zone (former medium-term swing low area of 08 Sep  2017 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 08 Feb 2018 high to last Fri, 16 Feb low of 105.55). On the hand, failure to hold above 106.25 is likely to see the bears resurface for a push down to retest 105.55 (last Fri, 16 Feb low) and a break below it opens up scope for a further potential downleg to target the next support at 104.55/35 (Fibonacci projection cluster).

Stock Indices (CFD) – Holding above supports for further potential upside

  • US SP 500 – Yesterday, 19 Feb slide seen in the late European session had managed to hold right at the 2720 tightened key short-term support (former neckline resistance area of the minor “Double Bottom” ) before it staged a minor bounce. No change, maintain bullish bias above 2720 support with 2745 as the upside trigger level (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 29 Jan high to 06 Feb 2018 low) to reinforce another potential upleg to target the next near-term resistance at 2795/2810 in the first step (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the steep decline from 29 Jan 2018 high to 05 Feb 2018 U.S. session low + 1.382 Fibonacci projection of the up move from 09 Feb 2018 U.S. session low to 12 Feb 2018 minor high projected from 14 Feb U.S. session low). However, failure to hold above 2720 should negate the bullish tone for a slide back to retest the 2662 key medium-term support set for this week (see latest weekly technical outlook + former minor swing high area of 13 Feb 2018).
  • Japan 225 – No change, maintain bullish bias above 21570 key short-term support (former minor swing high area of 15 Feb 2018 + minor ascending channel support from 10 Feb 2018 low) for a further potential push up to target the next resistances at 22250 (minor swing high area of 07 Feb 2018) follow by 22800 next (close to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 23 Jan 2018 high to 09 Feb 2018 U.S. session low). However, a break below 21570 should negate the bullish tone for a slide back to retest the 21000 minor swing low areas of 13/14 Feb 2018.
  • Hong Kong 50 – Reopen today after CNY holiday break. Gapped up in today’s opening Asian session and hit the short-term target of 31280/400 ((minor swing high of 07 Feb 2018 + descending trendline from 29 Jan 2018 high + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 29 Jan high to 09 Feb 2018 U.S. session low). No clear signs of bullish exhaustion yet, maintain bullish bias in any dips above 30160 key short-term support (minor swing low of 14 Feb 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 09 Feb 2018 low) and a break above 31400 is likely to reinforce another upleg to target the next near-term resistance at 31800/32000 (gapped down formed on 06 Feb 2018 + 61.8%  Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 29 Jan high to 09 Feb 2018 U.S. session low). However, failure to hold above 30160 should negate the bullish tone for a deeper slide to retest  29400/29070 key medium-term support.
  • Australia 200 – No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips above 5870 key short-term support (former minor swing high area of 14 Feb 2018 + minor asecending trendline from 10 Feb 2018) for a further potential push up to target the next near-term resistance at 5990 (pull-back resistance from the minor swing low of 15 Nov 2017 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 09 Jan 2018 high to 09 Feb 2018 U.S. session low). On the flipside, failure to hold above 5870 should negate the bullish tone for a slide back to retest the 5780 key medium-term support set for this week (see latest weekly technical outlook)
  • Germany 30 – Drifted down and tested the 12370 tightened key short-term support with the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator that has started to inch higher from its oversold region. No change, maintain bullish bias above 12370 support for a potential push up to test the 12650/12845 resistance in the first step (neckline of the minor “Double Bottom” in place since 06 Feb 2018 low + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the steep decline from 23 Jan 2018 high). However, failure to hold at 12370 should negate the bullish tone for a slide back to retest 14 Feb 2018 swing low area of 12110/12070.

Commodities – Watch 1336 support on Gold

  • Gold – Drifted down but still above the 1336 key short-term support with both the hourly and 4 hour Stochastic oscillators now back at their respective oversold regions. Maintain bullish bias above 1336 support (former minor swing high area of 14 Feb 2018 + pull-back support of the former descending trendline from 25 Jan 2018) for a  further potential push up to retest the 25 Jan 2018 swing high of 1365 follow by the major upside trigger level of 1378 (the neckline resistance of the “Bottoming” configuration in place since Nov 2015 low). However, a break below 1336 should negate the bullish tone to see a slide back to retest 1320/1317 (14 Feb 2018 swing low area).
  • WTI (Apr 2018) – Traded sideways, maintain bullish bias above adjusted key short-term support now at 61.60 (former minor swing high of 08/17 Feb 2018) for a further potential push up to target the near-term resistance zone of 63.15/63.85 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 25 Jan 2018 high to 10 Feb 2018 low + minor swing high area of 06/07 Feb 2018). On the flipside, a break below 61.60 should negate the bullish tone for a slide to retest 16 Feb 2017 low of 59.60.

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform



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