Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias/Key Levels (Tues 13 Feb)

Stock Indices further potential recovery in progress with USD remains weak except against the GBP & JPY. Watch 1344 potential upside trigger level for Gold.

FX – USD remains weak except against JPY & GBP

  • EUR/USD – Continued to inch higher as expected but still below the 1.2335 upside trigger (former minor range support since 30 Jan 2018). No change, maintain bullish bias above the 1.2200/2180 key support and a break above 1.2335 is likely to reinforce the start of another potential upleg to retest the recent 1.2520/30 range resistance printed on 25Jan/02 Feb 2017 in the first step. However, a break below 1.2200/2180 should invalidate the recovery scenario for an extension of the drop towards the next support at 1.2035/20 (former medium-term swing high area of 04 Sep 2017 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 12-month up move from 02 Jan 2017 to 29 Jan 2018 high).
  • GBP/USD – Traded sideways above 1.3800/3764 key short-term support as market awaits for the release of U.K. inflation data for Jan 2018 out later today @0930GMT. No change, maintain bullish bias above 1.3800/3764 support with 1.4000 as upside trigger level (former swing low of 30 Jan 2018 + minor descending trendline from 02 Feb 2018) to reinforce a potential push up to retest the 1.4270/4310 range resistance in place since 25 Jan 2018 in the first step. On the flipside, failure to hold above 1.3800/3764 should invalidate the recovery scenario for an extension of the minor corrective decline towards the 1.3620/3590 key medium-term support.
  • AUD/USD – Inched higher as expected. Maintain bullish bias above tightened key short-term support now at 0.7810 (minor swing low formed in yesterday, 12 Feb European session + minor ascending trendline from 09 Feb 2018 low) for a further potential push up to target the next near-term resistances at 0.7905 follow by 0.7950 next (minor swing high area of 05 Feb 2018 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 27 Jan 2018 high to 09 Feb 2018 low) within a minor corrective rebound phase. However, failure to hold above 0.7810 should negate the bullish tone for a slide to retest last Fri, 09 Feb 2018 low of 0.7760.
  • NZD/USD – Inched higher as expected and formed a marginal minor higher low in yesterday, 12 Feb U.S. session. No change, maintain bullish bias above tightened key short-term suppport now at 0.7224 (close to yesterday, 12 Feb U.S. session low + minor ascending trendline from 08 Feb 2018 low) for a further potential up move to target the next near-term resistance at 0.7340 (minor swing high area of 07 Feb 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 25 Jan to 08 Feb 2018 low). However, a break below 0.7224 should negate the bullish tone for a slide back to retest last Thurs, 08 Feb 2018 swing low area of 0.7190/7176.
  • USD/JPY – Traded sideways above the key  108.30/108.05 medium-term support. Maintain bullish bias above 108.30/108.05 support for a potential push up to retest the 109.75 minor swing high areas of 07/08 Feb 2018 and a break above 109.75 is likely to validate a further potential corrective up move towards 110.80/111.00 resistance in the first step (former swing low area of 27 Nov 2017 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 12 Dec 2017 high to 09 Feb 2018 low) within a longer-term sideways range configuration in place since 10 May 2017. However, failure to hold above 108.30/108.05 should trigger an extension of the decline towards the next support at 107.40/30 in the first step (medium-term swing low of 08 Sep 2017 + 1.618 Fibonacci projection of the down move from 06 Nov to 27 Nov 2017 projected from 12 Dec 2017). 
Stock Indices – Further potential recovery in progress
  • US SP 500 – Continued to push higher as expected after a retest on the 2540/30 support zone with outperformance seen in the high beta Technology sector in yesterday, 12 Feb U.S. session (the proxy technology sector ETF, XLK recorded a gain of 1.79% versus 1.39% seen in the S&P 500). No change, maintain bullish bias above tightened key short-term support now at 2614 (former minor swing high of 09 Feb 2018 + close to yesterday, 12 Feb U.S. session low  + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from 09 Feb low to yesterday, U.S. session high) for a further potential push up to target the next near-term resistance of 2728/45 in the first step (neckline of the minor  “Double Bottom” in place since last Tues, 06 Feb low + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the steep decline from 29 Jan 2018 high to 05 Feb 2018 U.S. session low). However, failure to hold above 2614 should put the bulls on hold to see a slide back to retest the 2540/30 major support.
  • Japan 225 – Broke above the minor descending trendline resistance in place since 07 Feb 2018 minor swing high. Flip back to bullish bias above 21100 key short-term support (former minor swing low of 06/09 Feb + close to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from last Fri, 09 Feb U.S. session low) for a further potential push up to target the next near-term resistances of 22250 follow by 22800/23000 next (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the steep decline from 23 Jan high to 09 Feb 2018 low + descending trendline from 23 Jan 2018 high). On the flipside, failure to hold above 21100 should negate the bullish tone for a slide back to retest the 20800/600 major support.
  • Hong Kong 50 – Continued to push high as expected from last Fri, 09 Feb U.S. session low of 29072 in line with a continuation of an up move seen in the ChinaA50 above its major support zone of 12790/12500 (the 38.2% of the up move from Feb 2016 low to 24 Jan 2018 high + former medium-term swing high area of Jun 2015). Maintain bullish bias above tightened key short-term support now at 29400 (yesterday, 12 Feb Asian session low that was tested and held in the U.S. session) for a further potential push up to target the near-term resistances of 30760 follow by 31280/31400 next (minor swing high of 07 Feb 2018 + descending trendline from 29 Jan 2018 high + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 29 Jan high to 09 Feb 2018 U.S. session low). However, failure to hold above 29400 should put the bulls on hold for a slide to retest last Fri, 09 Feb low of 29072.
  • Australia 200 – Maintain bullish bias in any dips above 5780 support (lower limit of the major support zone of 5780/5670 – refer to latest weekly technical outlook) for a potential push up to retest the near-term resistance of 5914 (minor swing high areas of 07/08 Feb 2018). On the other hand, a break below 5780 should invalidate the recovery process for another choppy move down to retest the lower limit of the major support zone at 5670.
  • Germany 30 – Continued to inch higher above the 11900/800 major support zone (refer to latest weekly technical outlook). Flip back to bullish bias above key short-term support at 12110 (close to 50% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from last Fri, 09 Feb U.S. session low) for a potential push up to target the near-term resistance zone of 12650/12845 (neckline of the minor “Double Bottom” in place since last Tues, 06 Feb low + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the steep decline from 23 Jan 2018 high to 09 Feb 2018 low + descending trendline from 23 Jan 2018 high + former range support from 15 Nov 2017).  On the flipside, a break below 12110 should negate the bullish tone for a slide back to retest the 11900/800 major support.

Commodities –Watch 1344 resistance (potential upside trigger) on Gold

  • Gold – Traded sideways. Maintain bullish bias  above 1310 key short-term support (swing low area of 08 Feb 2018) for a further potential push up to retest its near-term resistance of 1338/1344 (minor swing high area of 06 Feb 2018 + descending trendline from 25 Jan 2018 high) in the first step. A break above 1344 may open up scope for a further recovery to retest the 25 Jan 2018 swing high of 1365.  However, failure to hold above 1310 should invalidate the recovery scenario for an extension of the drop towards the next support at 1290/85 (Fibonacci cluster).
  • WTI (Mar 2018) – Maintain neutrality stance between 58.00 & 62.10 (descending trendline from 02 Feb 2018 high + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 02 Feb 2018 high to last Fri, 09 Feb 2018 U.S. session low). Only a break above 62.10 may see a recovery to retest 64.10/64.30 in the first step (minor congestion zone of  02/06 Feb 2018 + 61.8%/76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 02 Feb high to 06 Feb 2018 U.S. session low).

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform



 

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