Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias/Key Levels (Tues 03 Apr)
Kelvin Wong April 3, 2018 5:29 AM
No clear direction yet in USD strength revival. S&P 500 is testing 2585 key medium-term support with mix elements & further potential short-term weakness in WTI Crude.
FX – No clear direction in USD strength revival
- EUR/USD – Trend bias: Push down within sideways range in progress. Yesterday (02 Apr) Asian/European session’s gains were wiped out as it declined during the U.S. session to retest the 29 Mar low of 1.2284. Short-term momentum remains weak with the hourly RSI oscillator that continues to hover below the 50% level. Adjusted key short-term resistance to 1.2345/55 (yesterday, 02 Apr high) for a potential push down to retest the lower boundary/support of the “triangle range” at 1.2230. On the flipside, a break above 1.2355 invalidates the minor push down scenario for a squeeze up to retest 1.2440/2476 (27 Mar 2018 high + upper boundary of the “triangle range” in place since 16 Feb 2018 ).
- GBP/USD – Trend bias: Up. Managed to hold above the 1.4000 key short-term support (minor ascending channel support from 01 Mar 2018 low + Fibonacci cluster) and a break above 1.4090 (former minor swing low areas of 22/23/27 Mar 2018) is likely to reinforce a potential up move to retest 1.4200/4240 (26 Mar 2018 minor swing high) in the first step. However, failure to hold above 1.4000 negates recovery for a deeper slide towards the next intermediate support at 1.3920 (former congestion zone of 06/16 Mar 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent up move from 01 Mar low to 26 Mar 2018 high).
- AUD/USD – Trend bias: Push up within descending range. 0.7640 remains the key support to watch (the lower boundary/support of a medium-term “Descending Wedge” range configuration in place since 16 Feb 2018 high + Fibonacci cluster) for a potential push up to retest 0.7755/7780 (22 Mar 2018 minor swing high) in the first step. On the flipside, a break below 0.7640 invalidates the push up scenario for a further slide towards the lower boundary of a major “Ascending Wedge” range configuration in place since Jan 2016 low now acting as a support at 0.7600.
- NZD/USD - Trend bias: Unclear. Remains neutral between 0.7250 (30 Mar 2018 high) & 0.7190 (29 Mar 2018 minor swing low). A break below 0.7180 should reinstate the bearish tone for a minor slide to target the next intermediate support at 0.7100 (Fibonacci cluster).
- USD/JPY - Trend bias: Unclear. Yesterday’s break below the 106.00 key short-term support has invalidated the direct rise scenario. Mix elements now with the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator that has displayed a bullish divergence signal at its oversold region (a sign of weakening in downside momentum). Prefer to turn neutral now between 105.65 (yesterday, 02 Apr low) & 106.17 (former minor swing low area of 30 Mar 2018). On a break above 106.17 is likely to reinstate the upleg scenario to target the next intermediate resistance at 107.20 (minor swing high areas of 01/13 Mar 2018). On the flipside, a break below 106.17 shall trigger a further slide to retest 104.65 (26 Mar 2018 swing low area).
Stock Indices (CFD) – S&P 500 is testing the 2585 key medium-term support with mix elements
- US SP 500 – Trend bias: Unclear. The break below 2617 key short-term support and a challenge on the 2585 key medium-term support (printed an intraday low of 2553 has invalidated the push up scenario within the “triangle range” configuration. Yesterday’s 2% drop in the Index has been triggered by another round of sell-off in technology related stocks where the benchmark NYSE FANG+ declined by 3.3%. This latest round of carnage was attributed by U.S President Trump’s twitter post on Amazon’s “unethical business practises” which stoked fears that the U.S. White House may impose antitrust measures on “Big Tech” firms. In today, 03 Apr Asian session, the Index has managed to trade back at the 2585 key medium-term support (pull-back support of the former long-term ascending channel resistance from Mar 2009 + ascending channel support from 11 Feb 2016 low). Prefer to turn neutral first between 2602 (the former minor swing lows area of 26/29 Mar 2018) & 2560. Only a break above 2602 is likely to relieve the bearish pressure for a potential push up to retest the minor swing high of 2660 (also the descending trendline from 12 Mar 2018 high. On the flipside, a break below 2560 shall see a further decline towards the 2540/30 major support.
- Japan 225 – Trend bias: Unclear. Broke below the 21300 key short-term support in yesterday, 02 Apr U.S. session to print a low of 20934. Mix elements now as the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has started to exit from its oversold region with the Index that is staging a rebound in today’s Asian session to print a current intraday high of 21276. Interestingly, the rebound has occurred at the pull-back support of a former descending trendline from 13 Mar 2018. Prefer to turn neutral first between 21600 (upper boundary of the “Descending Wedge” range configuration in place since 27 Feb 2018 high) & 20930. Only a clearance above 21600 (an hourly close above it) is likely to open up scope for a further potential push up to test the next intermediate resistance at 22050 (minor swing high area of 13 Mar 2018).
- Hong Kong 50 – Trend bias: Unclear. Gapped down in today, 03 Apr Asian opening session and it is now testing the 30070/29800 key medium-term support (the swing low area of 05 Mar 2018 + major ascending trendline from 28 Dec 2016 low). Prefer to turn neutral first between 30360 & 29800. Only a break above 30360 shall negate the bearish tone for a potential push up to retest the 30870/970 minor range top in place since 27 Mar 2018. On the flipside, failure to hold at 29800 is likely to see a further slide towards the next support at 29070 (09 Feb 2018 major swing low area).
- Australia 200 – Trend bias: Unclear. Gapped down below 5750 key medium-term support (lower boundary of “triangle range” from 10 Feb 2018 low) in today Asian session at the open. It has now covered the gap and traded back above 5750 with a bullish divergence signal seen in the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator at the oversold region. Mix elements, prefer to turn neutral first between 5709 (current intraday low) & 5760 (former minor swing low areas of 24/29 Mar 2018 ). Only a break above 5760 is likely to negate the bearish tone for a push up to retest the intermediate resistance of 5880 (former minor swing low area of 05 Mar 2018).
- Germany 30 – Trend bias: Unclear. Neutral between 11900/800 (key medium-term support) & 12130 (minor swing high area of 29 Mar 2018). Only a break above 12130 is likely to relieve the short-term bearish tone for a push up to test 12500 (intermediate range resistance from 07 Feb 2018 high).
Commodities – Further potential short-term weakness in WTI Crude
- Gold - Trend bias: Unclear. Yesterday’s push up has stalled at the 1340 upper limit of the neutrality range after it backed down from its intraday high of 1345. Prefer to maintain neutrality stance between 1345 & 1321 (29 Mar 2018 minor low). A break below 1321 is likely to see a further slide to retest the medium-term range support of 1307/1300 in place since 08 Feb 2018.
- WTI Crude (May 2018) – Trend bias: Further push down within range configuration. Broke below the 63.72 lower limit of the neutrality range, turn bearish now below 63.86 key short-term resistance for a further potential push down to to test the next intermediate support at 62.30/62.00 (medium-term ascending channel support from 09 Feb 2018 low + former minor range resistance of 12/17 Mar 2018).
*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform
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