Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 26 Apr)

Recent USD strength is coming close to an inflection zone for a potential setback with first sign detected on USD/JPY. S&P 500 remains below 2660 key short-term resistance with risk of shaping one last residual downleg.

FX –  Recent USD strength coming close to an inflection zone to trigger a potential setback

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Potential residual push down within minor corrective decline phase.  The pair drifted lower as expected almost met  the first downside target/support at 1.2150 (01 Mar 2018 low), printed an intraday low of 1.2160 in yesterday, 25 Apr U.S. session. Elliot Wave/fractal analysis suggests the risk of an imminent rebound that is likely to be in a greater magnitude versus the relief rebound seen recently from 24 Apr low of 1.2180 to its U.S session high of 1.2245 as  the decline from 12 Apr 2018 high of 1.2414 has evolved in a five wave intermediate degree down movement structure with a Fibonacci projection cluster that confluences with the aforementioned graphical support of 1.2150 coupled with the 4 hour Stochastic that has started to inch up from an extreme oversold level at 5%. Adjusted the key short-term resistance to 1.2220 (former minor swing low areas of 05/06 Apr 2018 + close to the minor descending trendline from 19 Apr 2018 high + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of on-going decline from 17 Apr high to 25 Apr U.S. session low of 1.2160) for a potential residual push down to target key medium-term support of 1.2065/2030 (median line of a medium-term ascending channel in place since 03 Jan 2017 + former medium-term swing high areas of 29 Aug/08 Sep 2017 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going medium-term uptrend from 03 Jan 2017 low to 16 Feb 2018 high) before a recovery sets in. However, a clearance above 1.2220 shall see the start of a more pronounced rebound towards 1.2285/2300 resistance in the first step (the pull-back resistance of the former minor ascending trendline support from 01 Mar 2018 low + 50% Fibonacci retracement of on-going decline from 17 Apr high to 25 Apr U.S. session low of 1.2160).
  • GBP/USD - Trend bias: Minor corrective decline remains intact.  Drifted lower to retest 24 Apr low of 1.3916 before it traded a tight sideways range of 22 pips throughout yesterday, 25 Apr U.S. session. No change, maintain bearish bias below key short-term resistance at 1.4100 (former minor ascending trendline support from 01 Mar 2018 low) for another potential downleg to target the 1.3765/3590 key medium-term support zone (medium-term ascending channel support from 14 Mar 2017 low + swing low areas of 09 Feb/01 Mar 2018). However, a clearance above 1.4100 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze back up towards the 1.4300/4345 failure bullish breakout zone seen on 17 Apr 2018.
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: Potential residual push down before corrective rebound. Drifted lower as expected to print a lower low of 0.7552 in yesterday, 25 Apr U.S. session before it traded sideways. Maintain bearish bias with an adjusted key short-term resistance now at 0.7600 (former minor range support of 24 Apr 2018) for a potential residual push down to target the 0.7510/07500 support (the medium-term swing low of 08 Dec 2017 + Fibonacci projection cluster) before risk of corrective rebound materialises. However, a break above 0.7600 shall see the start of a more pronounced corrective rebound towards the  0.7650 resistance (pull-back resistance of the former major “Ascending Wedge” support from Jan 2016 low + former minor swing low areas of 29 Mar/09 Apr 2018).
  • NZD/USD – Trend bias: : Potential residual push down before corrective rebound. Drifted lower as expected to print a lower low of 0.7058 in yesterday, 25 Apr U.S. session before it traded sideways. Maintain bearish bias with an adjusted key short-term resistance now at 0.7110 for a potential residual push down to target the 0.7030/7000 support (former minor swing high area of 13 Dec 2017 + Fibonacci retracement /projection cluster) before risk of a corrective rebound materialises. However, a break above 0.7110 shall kick start the potential corrective rebound phase towards the 0.7180 resistance (the former medium-term range support from 08 Feb/21 Mar 2018 + close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 13 Apr high to 25 Apr U.S. session low of 0.7058).
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias:  Risk of pull-back to retrace recent up move from 26 Mar 2018 low. Pushed up as expected and almost met the upside target/resistance of 109.50/65 (printed an intraday high of 109.47 in today, 26 Apr Asian session).  In addition, the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator  has flashed a bearish divergence signal at its overbought region which indicates a slowdown in upside momentum of price action.  Flip to a bearish bias below 109.50/65 key short-term resistance (swing high area of 06.08 Feb 2018 + Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster) for a potential pull-back/consolidation towards the 107.80/70 support (former medium-term swing high area of 21 Feb 2018) and below exposes the next support zone at 106.90/65 (minor swing low area of 10/11 Apr 2018+ close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 26 Mar low to today Asian session current intraday high of 109.47). On the other hand, a clearance above 109.65 shall see the continuation of the up move to target the next resistance at 110.50/85 (swing high of 02 Feb 2018 + medium-term descending trendline from 06 Nov 2017 high + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 06 Nov 2017 high to 26 Mar 2018 low).

Stock Indices (CFD) –  S&P 500 remains below 2660 key short-term resistance

  • US SP 500 – Trend bias:  Push down to test “Symmetrical Triangle” range support. The Index staged the expected bounce and it is now hovering right below the 2660 key short-term rebound as per highlighted in yesterday report. Yesterday’s push up from the 25 Apr U.S. session opening hour low of 2611 to its session high of 2649 was not led by the high beta Technology sector. On the contrary, the S&P Technology underperformed the S&P 500 where its respective Technology sector ETF, XLK only recorded a gain of 0.02% versus a gain of 0.18% seen in the S&P 500. Bear in mind that the main culprit that caused the recent slide seen on the S&P 500 from its 24 Apr high of 2688 is from the Technology sector and yesterday’s underperformance from Technology stocks in general is not a convincing sign to justify a pronounced recovery on the S&P 500 at this juncture. Maintain bearish bias below 2660 key short-term resistance (former minor swing low areas of  20/23 Apr 2018 + close to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of yesterday’s steep decline from its high of 2689 to yesterday,25 Apr low of 2611) for a potential residual downleg to target the the Symmetrical Triangle” range support at 2590/85 (key medium-term support) before a recovery materialises.  
  • Japan 225 Trend bias: Sideways.  Today, 26 Apr early Asians session push up stalled at the 22360 upper limit of the neutrality zone as per highlighted in yesterday report. It printed a current Asian session intraday high of 22392 before an hourly close back below 22360. No change maintain neutrality stance between 22360/392 and 21960 plus the risk of another downleg in the S&P 500. Only a clear break above 22360 (an hourly close above it) reinstates the  bullish tone for an assault on the 22510/600 resistance in the first step.
  • Hong Kong 50Trend bias: Sideways. No change, maintain neutrality stance between 30000/29950 (psychological level +  former swing low areas of 23 Mar/03 Apr 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 04 Apr 2018 low to 12 Apr 2018 high) and 30790 (yesterday, 24 Apr European session high). Only a break above 30790 (an hourly close above it) reinstates the  bullish tone for a push up towards the 31165 minor range resistance in first step.
  • Australia 200 – Trend bias: Sideways. Prefer to turn neutral first between 5950 and 5880 (the minor ascending trendline support from 03 Apr 2018 low) given the risk of another downleg in the S&P 500. Only a clear break above 5950 (an hourly close above it) reinstates the  bullish tone for a push up towards the next resistance at 6000 (psychological + triangle range resistance from 09 Jan 2018 high).  
  • Germany 30Trend bias: Sideways. Broke below 24 Apr low of 12375 to print a low of 12311 in yesterday, 25 Apr European session. Thereafter, it traded back up above 12375 in yesterday, 25 Apr U.S. session to print a high of 12486 that is right below the failure bullish breakout level/neckline of the minor “Double Bottom” from 07 Feb  2018 high at 12500.  Another round of choppy movement, prefer to maintain neutrality stance between 12640 and 12311. A break below 12311 sees the risk of a deeper slide towards the 12150/12090 key medium-term support (ascending trendline from 26 Mar 2018 low + close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 26 Mar low to  24 Apr high of 12649) before a recovery materialises.

Commodities – Further potential residual weakness in Gold towards medium-term range configuration support

  • WTI Crude (Jun 2018) - Trend bias: Sideways.  Retested 67.15 before it staged a rebound to print a current intraday high of 68.46 in today, 26 Apr Asian session. No change, maintain neutrality stance between between 69.90 and 67.15. A break below 67.15 (an hourly close below it) opens up scope for a deeper pull-back to retest the next intermediate support of 66.50/10 (former medium-term range resistance from 25 Jan/23 Mar 2018).
  • Gold - Trend bias: Push down within medium-term sideways range. Inched lower as expected to print a minor lower low of 1318 in yesterday, 25 Apr European session before it traded sideways. Maintain bearish bias in any bounce below adjusted key short-term resistance now at 1333 (minor swing high area of 25 Apr that confluences with the former minor swing low area of 13 Apr 2018) for a  further potential slide to target the medium-term range support of 1310/1303 in place since 08 Feb 2018 low. On the other hand, a clearance above 1333 negates the short-term bearish tone for a squeeze back up to retest 1347/50 intermediate resistance (minor descending trendline from 11 Apr 2018 high).

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform


 



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